La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Sevilla Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Betis

Home Team
69%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
14%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Betis D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)

Sevilla W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 1

Sevilla

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.00
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are clear favourites here, with a 69.0% probability of taking all three points against a Sevilla side given just a 14.0% chance of victory and a 17.0% likelihood of a draw. Sitting 5th on 42 points and chasing the Champions League spots, Betis face 12th‑placed Sevilla, who are stuck in mid‑table on 29 points. The model points to goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% and both teams expected to score (53.0% probability of “goal”).

Match Analysis

Betis come into the derby in solid form: two wins and a draw from their last three, including impressive away victories at Mallorca (2-1) and Atlético Madrid (1-0), plus a home draw with Rayo Vallecano (1-1). They’ve shown different ways to get results – more open contests at Mallorca and Rayo, and then a tight, disciplined display to edge Atlético. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, underpinned by strong attacking numbers: 2.372 expected goals (xG) for and 1.784 xG against per match, suggesting they’re consistently creating more than they allow. Sevilla, by contrast, are grinding rather than flying. They’re unbeaten in three, but with just one win – a 1-0 away success at Getafe – and back‑to‑back 1-1 home draws against Alavés and Girona. They’ve been second‑best on chances in most of those, with low shot counts and often conceding more efforts than they take. Their last five matches tell the story: only 1.0 goal scored per game, 1.8 conceded, with 1.234 xG for and a worrying 2.002 xG against. That defensive vulnerability, particularly against a Betis side in a stronger attacking rhythm, is a major factor in the home win prediction.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% leans towards a more open encounter. Two of Betis’s last three league games – the 2-1 at Mallorca and 1-1 against Rayo – finished with at least two goals, and their five‑game averages of 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded (backed by 2.372 xG for and 1.784 xG against) point to regular goalmouth action. Sevilla’s last three have all landed on exactly two goals (1-0, 1-1, 1-1), but their higher xG conceded of 2.002 per match hints that stronger opponents like Betis could push this fixture over the 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.66 total, suggesting a contest with a decent but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Betis’s last three have produced 8, 10 and 10 corners (they earned 3 in each, while conceding 5, 7 and 7), reflecting a side that allows opponents territory but still attacks enough to win their share. Sevilla’s recent games have seen 4, 3 and 12 corners, with them often on the back foot, particularly against Girona and Alavés. Given Betis’s more aggressive attacking profile and Sevilla’s tendency to defend deeper, around 9–10 predicted corners looks in line with the likely pattern.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.57, indicating a reasonably busy night for both goalkeepers. Betis’s last three matches have seen combined shot counts of 26, 31 and 18, with them typically either matching or slightly trailing their opponents but still producing enough attempts to justify their strong xG numbers. Sevilla’s recent outings have been more cautious – 12, 16 and 26 total shots – yet they often allow more than they create, consistent with their 2.002 xG against. Taken together, the shots prediction of around 25–26 fits a derby in which Betis drive the attacking tempo and Sevilla look to counter.

Final Prediction

Betis have the edge thanks to their stronger league position, better recent form and superior attacking and xG metrics, all backed up by a 69.0% win probability. Sevilla’s compact approach and derby pride will keep them competitive, but their higher xG conceded and lower scoring rate could tell. The key factor to watch is whether Sevilla can withstand Betis’s sustained pressure without cracking, especially as the game opens up in the second half.

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