La Liga 2025-2026: Betis vs Vallecano Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Betis

Home Team
63%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
17%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Betis W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 0)

Vallecano W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Betis

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.82
# Clean Sheets: 2

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are clear favourites at home with a 63.0% chance of victory, compared to just 17.0% for Vallecano and a 20.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a Betis win (H) and leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 56.0% chance of at least three goals. In the table, Betis sit firmly in the Champions League race in 5th on 41 points, while Vallecano are down in 17th on 25 points, just above the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Betis come into this clash in outstanding form, winning all of their last three league games. They edged Mallorca 2-1 away, beat Atlético Madrid 1-0 away, and saw off Valencia 2-1 at home – two tight away wins and a solid home performance. Across their last five games, they are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, underpinned by strong attacking underlying numbers (2.26 expected goals for per match) and a respectable 1.822 expected goals against. Two clean sheets in that run show they can manage games as well as outscore opponents. Vallecano, by contrast, are far more up and down. They produced an excellent 3-0 home win over Atlético Madrid, but that is surrounded by a 2-1 defeat at Real Madrid and a 3-1 home loss to Osasuna. Over their last five, they are only scoring 0.2 goals per game while conceding 2.0 on average, despite generating 0.95 expected goals per match. Defensively, they are allowing 1.99 expected goals against, which suggests they are regularly under pressure and giving up decent chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 56.0%, and the recent numbers back that up. Two of Betis’s last three games (2-1 vs Mallorca, 2-1 vs Valencia) went over 2.5, with only the 1-0 win at Atlético Madrid staying under. Vallecano have also seen goals: all three of their recent matches (3-0, 2-1, 3-1) finished over 2.5. With Betis averaging 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, and both sides’ xG profiles (2.26 for, 1.822 against for Betis; 0.95 for, 1.99 against for Vallecano) suggesting chances at both ends, over 2.5 looks more likely than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Betis
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.08, pointing to a game with a healthy but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Betis’s last three outings produced 10 corners vs Mallorca, 10 vs Atlético Madrid and 8 vs Valencia, while Vallecano’s saw 12 vs Atlético, 13 vs Real Madrid and 7 vs Osasuna. Both teams have recently been involved in matches around or above that 10-corner mark, which fits this corners prediction and reflects Betis’s attacking approach and Vallecano’s tendency to soak up pressure and break, generating corners at both ends.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Betis
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots in this match is 26.85, suggesting a reasonably open contest with chances for both sides. Betis’s last three games featured combined shot counts of 31 (vs Mallorca), 18 (vs Atlético Madrid) and 29 (vs Valencia), while Vallecano’s saw 22 (vs Atlético), 27 (vs Real Madrid) and 25 (vs Osasuna). Those numbers support a shots prediction close to 27 expected shots overall, consistent with Betis’s strong attacking xG of 2.26 per match and Vallecano’s tendency to allow nearly 2.0 expected goals against.

Final Prediction

Betis have the edge thanks to their superior league position, three-match winning streak, and far stronger recent attacking and defensive metrics. Vallecano can be dangerous on their day, as shown by the 3-0 win over Atlético, but their low recent scoring rate and high goals conceded tilt the balance. A key factor to watch will be whether Vallecano’s defence can contain Betis’s consistent chance creation, or whether sustained pressure and shots eventually turn into goals for the home side.

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