La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Mallorca Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Celta

Home Team
86%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Celta D L D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)

Mallorca L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 2

Mallorca

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.94
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are strong favourites at home with an 86.0% probability of victory against a Mallorca side given just 6.0% to win, with the draw at 8.0%. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with 54.0% chance of at least three goals in the match. In the table, Celta sit 7th on 34 points and looking up the league, while 18th-placed Mallorca (24 points) are fighting to stay out of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Celta come into this one in relatively solid form, even if results have been mixed: a 2-2 draw away to Espanyol, a narrow 1-2 home defeat to Osasuna, and a 0-0 at Getafe. They have shown they can both score and control games, with 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and averages of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in that stretch. Their underlying numbers back this up: 1.828 expected goals (xG) for and 1.276 xG against on average, suggesting they consistently create more than they allow. Mallorca’s recent run is far more volatile: a heavy 0-3 loss at Barcelona and a 1-2 home defeat to Betis were softened only by a big 4-1 win over Sevilla. Over the last 5 games, however, they average just 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with low attacking production at 0.652 xG for and a worrying 1.944 xG against per match. With no clean sheets in that period and defensive numbers trending poorly, they look vulnerable against a Celta side whose attack is currently more efficient and more dangerous.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 54.0% probability for this match. Two of Mallorca’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Sevilla, 0-3 vs Barcelona), while only one of Celta’s last three (the 2-2 at Espanyol) crossed that line, with the other two finishing 1-2 and 0-0. Still, Celta’s averages of 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus their 1.828 xG for, combined with Mallorca’s tendency to concede (1.8 goals and 1.944 xG against), support the idea that the game can open up and produce at least three goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.79, putting the corners prediction around the 9–10 mark. Celta’s last three outings saw corner counts of 2-2, 7-3 and 3-5, while Mallorca posted 7-3, 3-12 and 4-8. Both sides have been involved in matches with moderate to high corner totals, particularly Mallorca, whose defensive pressure often forces blocks and clearances. With Celta likely to have more of the ball at home, the predicted corners figure aligns with a game where the hosts probe repeatedly in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this fixture is 25.01, giving a shots prediction of roughly 25 attempts overall. Recently, Celta’s matches have seen them take 14, 18 and 5 shots, while facing 9, 8 and 9; Mallorca have taken 14, 9 and 11 shots and conceded 17, 24 and 15. Those volumes fit well with the expected shots figure and the xG profiles: Celta’s 1.828 xG for and Mallorca’s 1.944 xG against suggest the hosts should generate a healthy number of chances.

Final Prediction

Celta’s strong recent attacking output, superior xG balance, and higher league position give them a clear edge over a Mallorca side conceding too many chances and goals. If Mallorca cannot tighten up defensively, Celta’s pressure and shot volume could decide the match. A key factor to watch will be how early Celta impose themselves in the final third; an early goal could quickly tilt the game towards the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals.

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