La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Osasuna Prediction - 6 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Celta

Home Team
57%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
21%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 22 18 1 3 60 23 37 55
2 Real Madrid 22 17 3 2 47 18 29 54
3 Ath Madrid 22 13 6 3 38 17 21 45
4 Villarreal 21 13 3 5 39 23 16 42
5 Betis 22 9 8 5 36 28 8 35
6 Espanol 22 10 4 8 26 27 -1 34
7 Celta 22 8 9 5 29 23 6 33
8 Sociedad 22 7 7 8 30 30 0 28
9 Osasuna 22 7 5 10 26 27 -1 26
10 Alaves 22 7 4 11 20 27 -7 25
11 Betis 22 7 4 11 21 31 -10 25
12 Girona 22 6 7 9 21 36 -15 25
13 Elche 22 5 9 8 30 32 -2 24
14 Mallorca 22 6 6 10 28 34 -6 24
15 Sevilla 22 7 3 12 29 37 -8 24
16 Valencia 22 5 8 9 23 35 -12 23
17 Getafe 22 6 5 11 16 27 -11 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 21 4 6 11 24 34 -10 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Celta D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 4 - 1)

Osasuna D W W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.76
# Clean Sheets: 3

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.22
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are favored to win at home with a 57.0% probability, compared to 21.0% for an Osasuna victory and a 22.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a low-scoring contest, forecasting under 2.5 total goals (49.0% for over 2.5) but still expecting both sides to score (53.0% “goal” probability). In the table, Celta sit 7th on 33 points, while Osasuna are 9th with 26 points, both pushing to stay in the European race.

Match Analysis

Celta’s recent form has been solid if slightly uneven: a 3–0 home win over Vallecano showcased their attacking potential, followed by a 3–1 loss at Sociedad and a goalless draw away to Getafe. Over the last five matches they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with an impressive three clean sheets, indicating a team that can both hurt opponents and shut games down. Their expected goals numbers (1.522 for, 1.762 against) suggest they’ve been a touch more clinical in front of goal than the underlying chance quality might indicate. Osasuna come in on a positive run of results, unbeaten in their last three with wins over Vallecano (3–1 away) and Oviedo (3–2 home), plus a 2–2 draw against a strong Villarreal side. Interestingly, those scorelines contrast with their broader five-game averages of just 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, and they have not managed a single clean sheet in that span. Their expected goals (0.982 for, 1.224 against) point to relatively modest attacking output and a defense that can be opened up.

Final Prediction

Celta’s stronger league position, recent clean-sheet record, and higher scoring average at the moment give them the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna’s defense, which has been conceding regularly, can cope with Celta’s home attacking threat while still posing enough danger at the other end to justify the expectation that both teams will find the net.

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