La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Oviedo Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Celta

Home Team
68%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
15%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Celta W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Oviedo W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 0.93
Clean Sheets 0

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 2.48
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are strong favourites at Balaídos, with a 68.0% probability of taking all three points against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just a 15.0% chance of an upset and sit 20th in La Liga. The match is also leaning towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction backed by a 51.0% probability. Sixth‑placed Celta, only two points off the Champions League spots, face an Oviedo side fighting for survival and already four points from safety.

Match Analysis

Celta come into this one with mixed but generally positive momentum: a 3-2 away win at Valencia, a wild 3-4 home defeat to Alavés and a solid 1-1 draw at Betis. Those games underline their attacking punch but also their defensive frailty – seven goals scored and seven conceded in just three outings. The underlying numbers support the eye test: 2.0 goals scored on average in their last five, backed by 1.9 expected goals, but they’re allowing 1.6 goals from just 0.93 xG conceded and have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch. Oviedo’s recent run is more erratic but has flickers of resilience. They’ve beaten Valencia and Sevilla both 1-0 at home, either side of a damaging 2-4 defeat away to Levante. That’s four goals scored and four conceded across three games, but over the last five matches they are shipping an average of 2.8 goals from 2.48 expected against – relegation‑form defending. The small positive: two clean sheets in their last five suggest they can dig in when the game state suits them, though their attack averages just 1.2 goals and 1.096 xG.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans narrowly towards an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, and Celta’s recent scorelines back that up. Two of their last three league games (3-2 vs Valencia and 3-4 vs Alavés) have gone over 2.5 goals, with only the 1-1 at Betis falling under. Oviedo are more split: one over (2-4 at Levante) and two under 2.5 (both 1-0 home wins). Given Celta’s blend of 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, plus Oviedo’s porous average of 2.8 goals conceded, there is enough attacking and defensive imbalance to expect chances and goals rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.16, which fits the recent patterns of both sides. Celta’s last three matches have produced 6, 5 and 7 total corners respectively, while Oviedo’s have seen 14, 4 and 11, reflecting how game state and opposition pressure can inflate or shrink the count. With Celta likely to dominate territory at home and Oviedo forced to defend deep and break sporadically, a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark looks realistic for this clash.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.96 expected shots overall, this game should see a decent volume of attempts without turning into a shooting gallery. Celta’s last three have featured shot totals of 22, 26 and 26, while Oviedo’s have seen 16, 30 and 24, suggesting both teams are used to open contests. That shots prediction marries well with Celta’s 1.9 xG and Oviedo’s 1.096 xG in recent games: enough attacking thrust on both sides to create opportunities, even if the quality and finishing will vary.

Final Prediction

Celta’s superior league position, stronger attacking metrics and home advantage give them a clear edge over a struggling Oviedo side still leaking far too many chances. The key factor to watch will be Celta’s ability to turn their sustained pressure into goals, and whether Oviedo’s improved knack for the occasional clean sheet can withstand 90 minutes in Vigo.

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