La Liga 2025-2026: Celta vs Sevilla Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Celta

Home Team
57%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
22%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 8.7
Expected Shots: 23.0
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Celta D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Sevilla L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Celta

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 1

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.76
xGA (avg) 1.79
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are tipped to take this one at Balaídos, with a 57.0% probability of a home win against just 22.0% for Sevilla and 21.0% for the draw. The model leans towards goals as well, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%. In the table, Celta sit 6th on 51 points, while Sevilla languish in 13th with 43 points.

Match Analysis

Celta come into this still inconsistent but competitive. Their last three show the full range: a 1-0 smash-and-grab win at Atlético Madrid, a wild 3-2 home defeat to Levante, and a 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao. What stands out is how often they’ve been out-shot (3-27 at Bilbao, 3-20 at Atlético) yet still found ways to stay in games. Over the last five, they’re scoring 1.8 goals per match but conceding 2.6, a high-event profile backed by xG figures of 1.428 for and 1.524 against. Sevilla’s recent form has stabilised after a rough season. Wins over Villarreal (3-2 away) and Espanyol (2-1 at home) showed some attacking life, even if they were followed by a tight 1-0 home loss to Real Madrid. However, the underlying numbers are less flattering: 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded on average over the last five, with only 0.758 xG created and 1.79 xG allowed. That gap between goals scored and xG hints at some overperformance in attack and persistent defensive frailty.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% is backed by recent scorelines. Two of Celta’s last three (2-3 vs Levante, 1-1 vs Athletic, 1-0 vs Atlético) went under 2.5, but their five-game averages of 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded suggest potential for goals. Sevilla have seen two of their last three (3-2 at Villarreal, 2-1 vs Espanyol, 0-1 vs Real Madrid) finish over 2.5, and their defensive record of 2.4 conceded per game with 1.79 xG against supports another open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Celta
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest total, with 8.72 expected total corners in the match. Celta’s last three have been erratic from the flag: 0-5 at Athletic, 4-4 vs Levante, and 0-10 at Atlético, often ceding territory and pressure. Sevilla have been more balanced on corners (4-4 vs Real Madrid, 4-6 at Villarreal, 4-6 vs Espanyol), suggesting they may control more of the ball but without producing an extreme number of predicted corners in what should be a measured rather than relentless attacking game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Celta
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s shots prediction sits at 23.01 expected shots in total. Celta’s recent matches have been skewed heavily against them in attempts (3-27 at Athletic, 11-14 vs Levante, 3-20 at Atlético), hinting that they may again look to be compact and efficient rather than volume shooters. Sevilla, by contrast, have put up 14, 13, and 21 shots in their last three while allowing 12, 6, and 10, which aligns with their xG profile: they create fewer clear chances (0.758 xG on average) than their shot counts suggest, but should still drive the bulk of the expected shots here.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Celta wins by X goals. Negative = Sevilla wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Celta vs Sevilla with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Celta vs Sevilla
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Celta favored by 0.43 goals, reflecting a narrow home advantage in the expected spread. Celta’s last three show a combined goal difference of 0 (4 scored, 4 conceded), while Sevilla are at +1 (5 scored, 4 conceded), but Sevilla’s higher xG against (1.79) versus Celta’s (1.524) suggests more defensive vulnerability. With a 57.0% home-win probability and stronger underlying attacking numbers, Celta are projected to edge it by a small margin.

Final Prediction

Celta’s edge comes from their attacking output and home status, backed by better recent xG figures and a higher win probability against a Sevilla side still leaking chances. Sevilla’s uptick in results cannot fully mask their defensive issues, particularly away from home. The key factor to watch will be whether Celta can translate their efficient finishing into an early lead, forcing Sevilla to chase and opening the game up for that predicted over 2.5 goals.

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