La Liga 2025-2026: Elche vs Alaves Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Elche

Home Team
64%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Elche L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)

Alaves L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elche

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 1

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.48
xGA (avg) 1.96
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Elche go into this one as clear favourites, with a 64.0% chance of victory against an Alavés side given just a 17.0% probability of an upset, and an 18.0% chance of a draw. The model points towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with 58.0% likelihood of at least three goals. In the table, Elche are 14th on 38 points, just two points and four places above 18th‑placed Alavés, who are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Elche’s recent form has been quietly impressive. They’ve taken six points from their last three games, including a 3-2 home win over Champions League-chasing Atlético Madrid and a gritty 2-1 away victory at Oviedo, only slipping up in a 3-1 defeat at Celta. Those matches show a side increasingly dangerous going forward: 1.6 goals scored on average over the last five games, backed by a strong 2.066 expected goals per match, while conceding just 1.0 on average with 1.356 xG against. Alavés arrive more fragile at the back but not toothless. They’ve alternated defeat and victory in their last three: a 2-4 home loss to Athletic Bilbao, a vital 2-1 win over Mallorca, and a narrow 2-1 defeat away to Real Madrid. They are actually scoring slightly more than Elche in the short term (2.0 goals per game over the last five) but concede heavily at 2.6 per match, with only 1.96 expected goals against, suggesting poor defensive execution rather than pure bad luck. No clean sheets in that run underline their defensive vulnerability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is supported by a 58.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Elche’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Atlético, 3-1 vs Celta), while the Oviedo game finished 2-1, also above the line. Alavés have likewise seen all of their last three go over 2.5 (2-4, 2-1, 1-2), and with Elche averaging 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded and Alavés at 2.0 scored and 2.6 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures, the attacking trend is clear.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elche
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.05, suggesting a steady but not frantic game in terms of set-piece volume. Elche’s recent corner numbers have been volatile: 2, 1 and then a huge 13 against Atlético, showing that when they’re on the front foot at home, they rack up plenty of flagged attacks. Alavés have been consistently active on corners (4, 9, 6), which suits a corners prediction around nine overall, reflecting two sides willing to attack but not relentlessly camped in each other’s box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elche
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 25.36 expected shots in total, which fits with both teams’ recent output. Elche’s last three matches saw them take 15, 4 and 14 shots, while facing 6, 12 and 6, showing they can dominate at home after more cautious away displays. Alavés fired 7, 15 and 19 attempts and conceded 9, 4 and 24; combined with their xG numbers, that expected shots figure hints at a fairly open contest with both keepers busy.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Elche wins by X goals. Negative = Alaves wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Elche vs Alaves with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Elche vs Alaves
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.74 in favour of Elche, indicating they are projected to win by about three-quarters of a goal. Elche’s last three have produced a +0 goal difference (6 scored, 6 conceded), but crucially they’ve shown they can edge tight games. Alavés, by contrast, have a -2 goal difference across their last three and a higher average conceded, which aligns with the strong 64.0% home-win probability and a modest but clear home advantage in the expected spread.

Final Prediction

Elche’s sharper recent form, stronger underlying attacking numbers and home advantage give them the edge over an Alavés side leaking too many goals at a crucial stage of the season. The key factor to watch will be how often Alavés’ brittle back line can withstand Elche’s pressure, especially if the hosts reproduce the high-shot, high-corner performance they showed against Atlético.

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