La Liga 2025-2026: Elche vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 22 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Elche

Home Team
15%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
69%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Elche W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Ath Madrid L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elche

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 2.61
Clean Sheets 1

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 1.86
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are clear favourites here, with a 69.0% chance of taking all three points away at the Martínez Valero, compared to just 15.0% for Elche and 15.0% for the draw. The model points strongly towards an away win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (62.0% probability), suggesting a more open game than Elche would like. In the table, Atlético arrive as a top‑four contender in 4th place on 57 points, while Elche sit 18th on 32 points and are fighting to escape the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Elche come into this with genuine belief after two wins in their last three: tight, hard‑fought home victories over Valencia (1-0) and Mallorca (2-1), either side of a narrow 1-0 defeat at Rayo Vallecano. Those results show a side that can grind at home but still gives up plenty of territory: across those three games they were outshot 54-30 and heavily out-cornered in two of them. The advanced numbers underline the danger they live with: over the last five matches Elche have conceded an average of 2.608 expected goals per game while allowing only 1.2 actual goals, so they’ve been riding their luck at the back despite just one clean sheet. Atlético Madrid’s recent form reads badly at first glance – three straight defeats to Sevilla (1-2), Barcelona (1-2) and Real Madrid (2-3) – but the context matters. They’ve been edged by top‑level opposition in tight matches, and still created chances: 13 shots away at Sevilla, 13 away at Real Madrid, and even in the loss to Barça they found the net. Over their last five games they average 0.8 goals scored from 0.896 xG, so their attack has underperformed slightly, while conceding 1.6 goals from 1.858 xG, a sign that both ends of the pitch have room for correction. Against a relegation‑threatened Elche that concedes high-quality chances, Atlético will expect those numbers to swing back in their favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 62.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Elche’s last three games have ended under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Valencia, 0-1 at Vallecano) and one over (2-1 vs Mallorca), while all three of Atlético’s recent outings have gone over 2.5 (1-2, 1-2, 2-3). Elche’s average of 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, combined with their very high 2.608 xG against, suggests the dam can break, and Atlético’s run of high‑scoring defeats points to another open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elche
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match stands at 9.43, which fits with the recent numbers for both sides. Elche’s last three matches produced 14, 13 and just 4 corners respectively, as they often sit deep and allow opponents to rack up set‑piece opportunities. Atlético’s games have been a little calmer on that front – 12, 10 and 5 corners – but their willingness to push on against weaker opponents should drive the corners prediction up towards that 9–10 range. With both teams conceding plenty of shots and territory in phases, we can expect a steady flow of corners without it turning into a complete bombardment.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elche
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.51, which points to a reasonably busy game for both goalkeepers. Elche’s last three matches saw them take 8, 9 and 13 shots while facing 22, 21 and 11, a clear pattern of absorbing pressure and countering. Atlético’s recent fixtures brought 13, 6 and 13 attempts of their own while allowing 11, 22 and 17, consistent with their xG profile of creating close to one expected goal per game and conceding nearly two. That balance fits a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with Atlético likely to generate the bulk of the chances against an Elche defence that allows a high volume of quality opportunities.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s superior league position, deeper squad and the weight of probability all point towards an away win, especially against an Elche side whose defensive numbers suggest their recent home results may not be sustainable. Elche’s fight and improving form at the Martínez Valero give them a puncher’s chance, but Atlético’s ability to create more and better chances should tell. The key factor to watch will be how often Atlético can get at Elche’s fragile back line; if the visitors impose themselves early, the game could quickly tilt their way.

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