La Liga 2025-2026: Elche vs Mallorca Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Elche

Home Team
54%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
25%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Elche L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)

Mallorca W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elche

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 2.78
Clean Sheets 1

Mallorca

xG (avg) 0.70
xGA (avg) 2.40
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Elche are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 54.0% probability of victory against Mallorca’s 25.0%, and a draw priced at 22.0%. The model leans towards a home win in a game between two sides fighting near the bottom – Mallorca sit 16th on 28 points, while Elche are 18th on 26 and currently in the relegation zone. Goals are expected: the over 2.5 prediction is backed by a 56.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Elche come into this with results that look poor on paper but contain some encouragement. They’ve lost away at Real Madrid (1–4) and Villarreal (1–2), but scored in both and created chances – 11 and 13 shots respectively – before drawing 2–2 at home to Espanyol in a match they dominated with 17 attempts. Their recent numbers underline a team that is competitive going forward but vulnerable at the back: 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average over the last five, with expected goals at 1.598 for and a worrying 2.778 against. Only one clean sheet in that period keeps the pressure firmly on the attack to deliver. Mallorca, a couple of places above but only two points better off, have been sliding. They did beat Espanyol 2–1 at home with an impressive 26 shots, but that sits alongside a 2–2 draw away to Osasuna where they were outshot 22–8 and a 0–1 home defeat to Sociedad with just 6 efforts on goal. Over their last five, they’ve averaged only 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, with xG of 0.698 for and 2.398 against, and no clean sheets. Those figures suggest a side that struggles badly to create clear chances and is spending far too much time on the back foot.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 with a 56.0% probability, and the recent form backs that up. Two of Elche’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (1–4 vs Real Madrid, 2–2 vs Espanyol), with only the 1–2 at Villarreal just under that line. Mallorca, similarly, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (2–1 vs Espanyol, 2–2 vs Osasuna), with just the 0–1 loss to Sociedad going under 2.5. Given Elche’s 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded per game and Mallorca’s 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, plus both sides’ xG profiles pointing to open, unbalanced games, the over 2.5 prediction looks well supported.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elche
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.64 total corners, which fits with how both teams have been playing. Elche’s last three have produced 9 (4–5 vs Real Madrid), 10 (6–4 vs Villarreal) and 4 (3–1 vs Espanyol) corners, showing that when they attack with width, the numbers rise. Mallorca’s matches have been corner-heavy too: 11 (5–6 vs Espanyol), 8 (0–8 vs Osasuna) and 10 (3–7 vs Sociedad). Both sides concede territory and crosses, which should keep the total near the predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elche
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.21, and that looks realistic given recent patterns. Elche’s last three games have seen combined shot counts of 25 (11–14 vs Real Madrid), 29 (13–16 vs Villarreal) and 26 (17–9 vs Espanyol), consistently landing in the mid‑20s or higher. Mallorca’s fixtures have been similar in volume: 36 shots in the 2–1 win over Espanyol (26–10), 30 in the 2–2 draw at Osasuna (8–22), and 18 in the 0–1 loss to Sociedad (6–12). With Elche generating decent xG at 1.598 and Mallorca conceding plenty of chances, the shots prediction of around 26 attempts overall ties neatly into the attacking and defensive trends.

Final Prediction

Elche’s slight edge comes from sharper recent attacking displays, stronger xG going forward and home advantage in a direct relegation scrap. Mallorca’s low scoring rate and porous defence make them vulnerable if Elche maintain the pressure they showed against Espanyol. The key factor to watch will be whether Elche can turn their shot volume into clinical finishing against a Mallorca back line that has not kept a clean sheet in five matches.

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