La Liga 2025-2026: Elche vs Valencia Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Elche

Home Team
32%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
44%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Elche L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)

Valencia L W L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elche

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 2.55
Clean Sheets 0

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are slight favourites here, with a 44.0% chance of taking all three points away at Elche, who have a 32.0% probability of a home win and 24.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a Valencia victory and a lively scoreline, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0%. In the table, Valencia sit 14th on 35 points, while Elche are down in 18th on 29 points and fighting to escape the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Elche come into this with mixed recent form but plenty of warning signs. They’ve lost two of their last three – 0-1 at Vallecano and 1-4 at Real Madrid – with a crucial 2-1 home win over Mallorca in between. Those games underline their fragility: 38 scored and 47 conceded across the season and no clean sheets in their last five. The advanced numbers back that up: they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored but 1.6 conceded in the last five, with a worrying 2.554 expected goals conceded per match, which points to opponents regularly creating good chances against them. Valencia, 14th but still unconvincing, also have an up-and-down recent run: a 2-0 win at Sevilla sandwiched between a 0-1 defeat at Oviedo and a 2-3 home loss to Celta. They’ve been competitive in every game, and their recent defensive record is slightly steadier than Elche’s: 1.0 goal conceded on average in the last five and two clean sheets in that stretch. Offensively they’re creating a bit more than they finish – 1.2 goals per game from 1.348 xG – suggesting they are at least carving out regular opportunities, which could be decisive against an Elche back line that gives up plenty of chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals here, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0%. Two of Elche’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Mallorca, 1-4 vs Real Madrid), while one stayed under (0-1 at Vallecano). Valencia have been a touch tighter – only one of their last three was over 2.5 (2-3 vs Celta), with two under 2.5 (2-0 at Sevilla, 0-1 at Oviedo) – but their average of 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with Elche’s 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded and high xG conceded, all point to a match where both sides can find the net.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elche
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.21, suggesting a mid-range but active game in wide areas. Elche’s recent corner numbers (4-9, 2-2, 4-5) show they often allow opponents pressure, especially away, while still earning a modest tally themselves. Valencia’s last three (6-0, 3-1, 7-4) indicate they can rack up corners when on the front foot, supporting a corners prediction close to that 9–10 range as both sides look to exploit the flanks and set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elche
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.56 expected shots in this match, fans should see a decent amount of goalmouth action. Elche’s recent shot totals (9, 13, 11) and those they’ve faced (21, 11, 14) show open games where both ends are busy. Valencia have been similarly involved, taking 13, 9 and 13 shots while allowing 9, 13 and 11, so an overall shots prediction around the mid‑20s aligns with their xG profiles and suggests a match with regular attempts from both attacks.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s slight defensive edge and more balanced recent form give them the narrow advantage over an Elche side leaking chances and stuck in the bottom three. Elche’s desperation at 18th place could open the game up, but that may suit Valencia’s ability to generate steady xG and corners. A key factor to watch will be how well Elche’s defence copes with sustained Valencia pressure, especially from wide areas and set pieces.

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