La Liga 2025-2026: Espanol vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 13 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Espanol

Home Team
25%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
54%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Espanol L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)

Ath Bilbao L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Espanol

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 1

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are favoured to take all three points, with a 54.0% chance of an away win against an Espanol side given just a 25.0% probability of victory (22.0% draw). The visitors sit comfortably higher in mid-table, while Espanol are 16th and still glancing nervously towards the relegation places. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% and Bilbao slightly better rated on the expected goal spread at -0.36.

Match Analysis

Espanol come into this under pressure after back-to-back defeats against Sevilla (1-2 away) and Real Madrid (0-2 at home), followed by a tense 0-0 home draw with Levante. Those three games underline their issues in both boxes: just one goal scored and four conceded, despite competitive shot counts (10-21, 17-15, 9-8). Over the last five matches they are averaging only 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG at 1.232 for and 1.73 against, suggesting opponents are consistently carving out slightly better chances. Athletic Bilbao’s form has been more chaotic but with a higher attacking ceiling. A 4-2 win at Alaves was sandwiched between a 0-1 home defeat to Valencia and a 2-3 loss at Ath Madrid, meaning one win and two losses but 6 goals scored and 6 conceded in that stretch. Their five-game averages – 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded – show a side that opens up games, while xG of 0.958 for and 1.72 against hints that they occasionally punch above their underlying attacking numbers but leave space at the back. That balance, combined with their higher league standing, explains why the away team are narrowly favoured despite recent defensive leaks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% feels justified. Only one of Espanol’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 1-2 loss at Sevilla), with the other two finishing 0-2 and 0-0, but their xG profile of 1.232 for and 1.73 against suggests more goals than the raw scorelines show. Bilbao have been involved in more open contests: two of their last three (4-2 at Alaves, 2-3 at Ath Madrid) went over 2.5, with only the 0-1 against Valencia staying under 2.5. Given Bilbao’s higher average goals conceded (2.2) and both sides’ xG against above 1.7, the model’s tilt towards goals looks logical.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.32, pointing towards a moderately busy afternoon from the flags. Espanol’s last three produced 10, 11 and 8 corners (totals of 10 vs Sevilla, 11 vs Real Madrid, 8 vs Levante), while Bilbao’s games saw 18, 11 and 7 corners respectively. That recent pattern supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 range, with both teams able to generate attacks from wide areas. Bilbao in particular can rack up set-piece situations – they had 13 corners alone against Valencia – which underpins the model’s predicted corners number.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.65 total attempts, in line with how both sides have been playing. Espanol’s recent matches totalled 31 shots at Sevilla, 32 against Real Madrid and 17 versus Levante, showing they can both create and allow efforts on goal. Bilbao’s last three produced 21 shots against Valencia, 16 at Alaves and 18 at Ath Madrid. Those volumes, together with xG of 1.232 and 0.958 in attack for Espanol and Bilbao respectively, make the expected shots figure a fair reflection of two teams who don’t always create clear chances but do pull the trigger often enough.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Espanol wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Espanol vs Ath Bilbao with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Espanol vs Ath Bilbao
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of -0.36 in favour of Athletic Bilbao underlines a slight away advantage rather than a likely rout. Across their last three, Espanol have a goal difference of -3 (1 scored, 4 conceded), while Bilbao sit at 0 (6 scored, 6 conceded), underlining the visitors’ greater attacking punch. That expected spread ties neatly to the win probabilities – 54.0% for Bilbao – and to the fact that Espanol’s defence is allowing 1.73 xG per game, leaving them vulnerable to a side that has averaged 1.4 goals despite modest xG.

Final Prediction

Bilbao’s edge comes from their greater firepower and slightly stronger overall profile, even if their defence has looked porous. Espanol’s lack of cutting edge, combined with a higher xG conceded, makes it difficult to trust them in a game that could open up. The key factor to watch will be how well Espanol contain Bilbao’s transitions; if the visitors find space between the lines, the numbers point to an away win in a match with goals.

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