La Liga 2025-2026: Espanol vs Celta Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Espanol

Home Team
32%
VS

Celta

Away Team
44%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Espanol L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)

Celta L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Espanol

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 0

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are slight favourites with a 44.0% chance of winning, compared to 32.0% for Espanol and a 24.0% chance of a draw, so the model leans towards an away victory. The match is also projected to finish under 2.5 goals (under_2_5) with a 55.0% likelihood, suggesting a tight contest. In the table, Espanol sit 6th on 34 points and Celta are just behind in 7th on 33, adding extra weight to this direct battle for European spots.

Match Analysis

Both sides come into this one on poor runs, but with different underlying stories. Espanol have lost their last three (1-4 vs Villarreal, 1-2 vs Alaves, 2-3 vs Valencia), conceding 9 goals across those games. They have created chances — 9, 10 and 16 shots respectively and 1.404 expected goals on average over their last five — but their defence has been leaky, allowing 1.4 goals and 1.634 expected goals per match in that stretch, with no clean sheets. Celta also lack recent results, with two defeats and a draw in their last three (1-2 vs Osasuna, 0-0 vs Getafe, 1-3 vs Sociedad). However, their defensive profile looks stronger: they concede only 0.6 goals on average in their last five games, with 1.17 expected goals against and three clean sheets. Offensively they are similar to Espanol in output at 0.8 goals scored per game, backed by 1.236 expected goals, but the more solid back line explains why the probabilities tilt in their favour despite being away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction is preferred here, with a 55.0% probability against 45.0% for over 2.5 goals. Interestingly, 2 out of Espanol’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals (5, 3 and 5 total goals), driven mainly by their defensive issues, while 2 of Celta’s last 3 stayed under (3, 0 and 4 total goals). With both teams averaging only 0.8 goals scored but combining to concede about 2.0 goals and producing modest xG (1.404 vs 1.236 for and 1.634 vs 1.17 against), the numbers lean slightly towards a lower-scoring, cagey game despite occasional high-scoring outliers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.21 total corners, roughly in line with what these sides have produced recently. Espanol’s last three matches saw corner totals of 13 (8-5), 6 (4-2) and 9 (7-2), while Celta’s had 10 (7-3), 8 (3-5) and 11 (9-2). Both teams tend to push forward enough to generate regular wide attacks, but not at a relentless tempo, which supports the predicted corners figure landing around the 9 mark rather than in an extreme range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.75, suggesting a moderately open game rather than a siege on either goal. Espanol’s recent shot counts are 9, 10 and 16 for, with 10, 11 and 10 against; Celta’s are 18, 5 and 17 for, facing 8, 9 and 10 respectively. This shots prediction lines up with their xG profiles: both sides create a reasonable number of opportunities without being especially clinical, so fans can expect a fair volume of attempts but not necessarily a flood of goals.

Final Prediction

Celta’s edge comes mainly from their more reliable defence in recent weeks and slightly better goal difference over the season (+5 vs Espanol’s -4), which matches the higher away-win probability. The key factor to watch will be whether Espanol’s attack can turn their steady chance creation into goals against a Celta side that has kept three clean sheets in its last five games.

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