La Liga 2025-2026: Espanol vs Levante Prediction - 27 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Espanol

Home Team
52%
VS

Levante

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: +0.3

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Espanol L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 2)

Levante W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Espanol

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 1

Levante

xG (avg) 0.76
xGA (avg) 2.84
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Espanol are marginal favourites here, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points against a Levante side given just a 25.0% chance of an upset and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction for goals (50.0% probability), suggesting a fairly open contest. In the table, Espanol sit 12th on 38 points, while Levante are 19th on 32 points and firmly in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Espanol come into this one after a tough three-game away swing: narrow defeat at Vallecano (0-1), a heavy loss to leaders Barcelona (1-4), and a goalless draw at Betis. The themes are familiar: they concede chances – 15, 20 and 19 shots faced in those matches – but still show flashes going forward. Over their last five games they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with 1.338 expected goals (xG) created and 1.78 xG allowed, numbers that paint them as slightly more dangerous in attack than the raw results suggest. Levante, 19th and scrapping for survival, have at least found some recent encouragement. Back-to-back home wins over Sevilla (2-0) and Getafe (1-0) have reignited their season, even if a 0-2 defeat away to Sociedad underlined their frailty on the road. The advanced metrics warn of underlying issues: across the last five matches they’ve averaged only 0.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, against 0.758 xG for and a hefty 2.84 xG against. Two clean sheets in that spell show they can dig in, but they are still allowing a high volume of chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is narrowly favoured at 50.0%, in line with the model’s expectation of a relatively open game. Two of Espanol’s last three have finished under 2.5 goals (0-1, 0-0), with only the 1-4 loss to Barcelona going over, while all three of Levante’s recent fixtures ended under 2.5 (2-0, 1-0, 0-2). However, Espanol’s blend of 1.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded and 1.338 xG per match, plus Levante’s defensive xG of 2.84, suggest enough chances will be created for this to tilt just over the line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.81, pointing towards a match with a steady but not extreme flow of attacking phases. Espanol’s last three games produced corner counts of 5-6, 5-7 and 3-4, consistently around the 8–12 mark. Levante’s recent numbers – 3-6, 8-2 and 5-11 – show that when they are forced back, they concede plenty of corners, while at home they can rack up their own. With both sides needing points, the predicted corners tally suits two teams likely to work the flanks and force set-pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 25.73 expected shots in total, a figure that matches what we’ve seen lately from both sides. Espanol’s last three have featured 15-17, 10-20 and 8-19 shots, repeatedly pushing games into the mid-20s or higher. Levante have been involved in 8-7, 22-5 and 8-18 shot counts, again often hovering around or above that range; combined with their xG profiles, the expected shots figure looks well aligned with a match where both teams create but also allow looks at goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Espanol wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Espanol vs Levante with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Espanol vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.32 in favour of Espanol, reflecting their status as slight favourites. Over their last three, Espanol have a goal difference of -4 (1 scored, 5 conceded), while Levante sit at +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded) thanks to those two home wins. Even so, with Espanol’s stronger attacking metrics and home advantage set against Levante’s porous recent xG against, the model still expects the hosts to edge it by roughly a third of a goal on average.

Final Prediction

Espanol’s edge comes from their superior underlying attacking numbers and the fact they’re at home against a Levante side that has been heavily outshot and out-chanced over a longer stretch. Levante’s recent uptick and clean sheets show they’re not finished yet, but their defensive xG trend is worrying. The key factor to watch will be how often Espanol can turn territorial pressure into shots from good areas – if they do, the probabilities are stacked in their favour.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel