La Liga 2025-2026: Espanol vs Oviedo Prediction - 9 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Espanol

Home Team
82%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Espanol D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)

Oviedo L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Espanol

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 0

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.31
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Espanol are strong favourites at home, with an 82.0% probability of taking all three points against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just an 8.0% chance of victory and sit 20th with 17 points. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring home win, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (47.0% for over 2.5, so the edge is on the “under”). Espanol start the day 7th on 36 points and still within sight of the European places, adding further motivation.

Match Analysis

Espanol come into this one off the back of three high‑scoring, chaotic matches: a 2-2 draw at Elche, a 4-2 defeat at Atlético Madrid and another 2-2 draw at home to Celta. The common thread is that they can find the net – two goals in each of those games – but they are leaking chances and goals at the other end. Over the last five, they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored but 1.6 conceded, with no clean sheets in that stretch, which underlines how fragile they can be defensively even when in control of the ball. Oviedo, rooted to the bottom, arrive with confidence in short supply after a 3-0 loss at Vallecano and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Atlético, bookending a wild 3-3 draw at Sociedad. They’ve actually averaged more goals scored than Espanol over the last five (1.2), but the real story is at the back: 2.6 goals conceded on average and only one clean sheet, backed up by a worrying xG against figure of 2.306. By contrast, Espanol’s xG numbers (1.402 for, 1.836 against) suggest they are creating slightly more and conceding slightly less than Oviedo, which, combined with home advantage and the league table, explains the overwhelming win probability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, despite the over 2.5 prediction probability sitting at 47.0%, so it’s a marginal lean rather than a certainty. Recent scorelines point the other way – all three of Espanol’s last matches (2-2, 4-2, 2-2) and two of Oviedo’s last three (0-3, 3-3, 0-1) have gone over 2.5. However, the medium‑term averages are more restrained: Espanol at 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded, Oviedo at 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded, with xG for both sides (1.402 vs 1.566) hinting at a match where a couple of key chances, rather than a flood, decide it.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate game in wide areas, with 9.38 expected total corners. Recent numbers support a mid‑range figure: Espanol’s last three have produced 4, 8 and 4 total corners, while Oviedo’s have seen 14, 11 and 13 as they’ve often been chasing games and slinging in crosses. Given Espanol’s more controlled style at home and Oviedo’s reactive, backs‑to‑the‑wall approach, the predicted corners tally around nine fits a contest where the home side probes without turning it into a constant corner‑fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.64 expected shots overall, the shots prediction points to a reasonably open encounter without becoming a shoot‑out. Espanol’s last three matches featured 26, 26 and 23 total shots, while Oviedo’s produced 27, 28 and 29 – both sides are allowing and generating plenty of efforts. That aligns neatly with the xG data: both teams regularly reach around 1.4–1.6 expected goals, which usually requires a fair volume of attempts even if the finishing or final pass has often let them down.

Final Prediction

Espanol’s edge comes from a combination of league position, slightly better underlying numbers and home advantage against a side marooned at the bottom and conceding heavily. Oviedo’s defensive vulnerability, reflected in 43 goals conceded and poor recent xG against, could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be how early Espanol can impose themselves; an early goal for the hosts could lock this into the controlled, low‑scoring home win the model expects.

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