La Liga 2025-2026: Espanol vs Sociedad Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Espanol

Home Team
41%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
35%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Espanol W W L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)

Sociedad L D D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Espanol

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 2

Sociedad

xG (avg) 0.86
xGA (avg) 2.83
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Espanol are very slight favourites here, with a 41.0% chance of victory compared to Sociedad’s 35.0%, and a predicted home win by a narrow margin. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, suggesting goals in a contest between two mid-table sides locked on 45 points, with Sociedad 10th and Espanol 11th in La Liga.

Match Analysis

Espanol arrive in decent form, with two wins from their last three: a solid 2-0 home victory over Athletic Bilbao and an impressive 2-1 success away at Osasuna, bookended by a 2-1 defeat at Sevilla. They’ve tightened up at the back recently, conceding just three goals across those games and keeping two clean sheets in their last five matches. Their recent averages – 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with xG of 1.17 for and 1.346 against – point to a side that doesn’t blow teams away but is increasingly hard to break down. Sociedad’s recent run is more chaotic: a 3-4 home defeat to Valencia, a 2-2 draw with Betis, and a 1-1 draw away to Girona. That’s three games unbeaten in terms of performance level going forward, but defensively fragile, with seven goals conceded in the last three. Over their last five, they average 1.4 goals scored but 2.2 conceded, and the advanced metrics are stark: just 0.864 xG for per game against a hefty 2.826 xG against, underlining how often they are being outplayed and relying on efficiency rather than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 51.0% probability. Two of Espanol’s last three matches (2-1 at Osasuna, 1-2 at Sevilla) went over 2.5, while one stayed under (2-0 vs Athletic Bilbao). For Sociedad, two of the last three also cleared the line (3-4 vs Valencia, 2-2 vs Betis) with only the 1-1 at Girona going under 2.5. With Espanol’s goals against at 1.0 and Sociedad conceding 2.2 per game, plus notably high xG against for Sociedad, the balance tilts just towards another open game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.98, pointing to roughly 10 corners overall. Recent numbers back that up: Espanol’s last three produced 11, 17 and 10 total corners, while Sociedad’s saw 5, 9 and 7. Both sides have shown spells of front‑foot play – Espanol especially at home against Athletic, Sociedad when chasing games – which naturally generates predicted corners close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 27.1 expected shots in the match. Recent patterns fit: Espanol games have featured 19, 23 and 31 total shots, while Sociedad’s have seen 21, 35 and 28. Given Sociedad’s high xG against (2.826) and tendency to allow volume, and Espanol’s steady 1.17 xG for, the expected shots tally suggests an open contest with both keepers busy.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Espanol wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Espanol vs Sociedad with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Espanol vs Sociedad
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.18 in favour of Espanol, reflecting only a very slight edge for the hosts. Recent scorelines support a tight affair: Espanol are +1 in goal difference over their last three (5 scored, 3 conceded), while Sociedad are -1 (6 scored, 7 conceded). With a 41.0% home win probability against 35.0% for the away side, and Espanol’s slightly more reliable defence, the numbers point to a narrow home success rather than a comfortable margin.

Final Prediction

Espanol’s sharper recent form, cleaner defensive metrics and home advantage give them a small but meaningful edge over a Sociedad side that is creating less than it concedes and living dangerously at the back. The key factor to watch will be how well Sociedad can cope without the ball: if their defence wobbles again, Espanol’s improving attack should be enough to tilt this finely balanced mid-table clash.

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