La Liga 2025-2026: Getafe vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Getafe

Home Team
37%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
37%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 22.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Getafe W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)

Ath Bilbao W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Getafe

xG (avg) 0.75
xGA (avg) 0.70
Clean Sheets 2

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.56
xGA (avg) 1.79
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are marginally favoured here with a 37.0% chance of victory, narrowly ahead of Getafe’s identical 37.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw, making this effectively a coin-flip contest. The model leans towards an away win in a tight, low-scoring game, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction (44.0% probability of over 2.5, so the edge is on the under). Getafe come into this from 8th place on 38 points, while Athletic are pushing from just outside the European spots for a late charge towards the top five.

Match Analysis

Getafe’s recent form has been quietly solid: two wins from their last three, including a 2-0 home victory over Betis and a gritty 2-1 success at Espanyol, offset by a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Atlético Madrid. They’ve scored four and conceded two across those three, but their broader five-game numbers (0.8 goals scored, 0.6 conceded on average) underline a conservative, defence-first side. The xG figures back that up: 0.754 expected goals for and just 0.702 against per match, with two clean sheets in their last five signalling a team that is hard to break down. Athletic Bilbao arrive with a more volatile profile. They edged Betis 2-1 at home, but that result is sandwiched between a heavy 3-0 loss at Girona and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Barcelona. Across those three, they’ve scored twice and conceded five, mirroring a wider five-game trend of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average. Interestingly, their xG numbers (1.56 for, 1.79 against) suggest they create more than Getafe but also allow more, and with zero clean sheets in the last five, their back line is clearly more vulnerable.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards *under 2.5* goals as the likeliest outcome, despite only a 44.0% chance of over 2.5 being noted. Two of Getafe’s last three matches have gone under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Atlético, 2-0 vs Betis), with only the 2-1 win at Espanyol clearing that line. Athletic’s last three are split: two games over 2.5 (3-0 loss at Girona, 2-1 win vs Betis) and one under (1-0 loss to Barcelona), but their recent scoring dip and Getafe’s low averages and tight xG against make the under 2.5 prediction more convincing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.65 total, suggesting a game around the 9–10 corners mark. Getafe’s last three have produced 12, 13 and 11 total corners respectively, helped by opponents putting them under pressure and forcing them deep. Athletic’s matches have been a bit more modest (11, 11 and 6 total corners), but their willingness to attack from wide areas and rack up efforts, particularly in Girona where they earned nine corners, supports a predicted corners figure close to double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total for this clash is 22.02, pointing to a game with chances but not a shot-fest. Getafe’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 25, 23 and 21, generally allowing more attempts than they take. Athletic’s recent outings show 22, 34 and 17 total shots, reflecting their higher xG (1.56 per game) and more open style. That blend of one cautious side and one more expansive team fits well with an overall shots prediction just above 20.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao are given a slender edge because they create more going forward and carry the greater xG threat, even if their defending has been shaky. Getafe’s defensive structure and recent form at home mean this should be tight, and the key battleground will be whether Athletic can turn their territorial and shooting advantage into goals against one of the most disciplined defences in mid-table.

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