La Liga 2025-2026: Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Getafe

Home Team
37%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
37%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 36%
Under 2.5: 64%
Goal: 43%
No Goal: 57%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 21.8
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Getafe L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)

Osasuna L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Getafe

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 1

Osasuna

xG (avg) 0.88
xGA (avg) 1.98
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Getafe are marginally favored at home, with a 37.0% chance of victory compared to Osasuna’s 37.0% and a 26.0% probability of a draw; the model still leans narrowly towards a home win. The game is expected to be tight and low-scoring, with an under 2.5 prediction at 36.0% probability for over and the model siding with under 2.5 goals. In the table, Getafe sit 7th on 48 points, while Osasuna are 16th with 42 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation line.

Match Analysis

Getafe come into this on a mixed run: a 3-1 home win over Mallorca was sandwiched between a 0-1 defeat at Elche and a 0-0 draw at Oviedo. Those three matches underline their identity: hard to break down but not especially prolific, with just three goals scored and two conceded in that spell. The 22 shots and 9 corners at Oviedo show they can dominate territorially, even if the finishing touch is inconsistent. Osasuna, by contrast, are on a worrying three-game losing streak, beaten 1-2 by both Espanyol and Atlético Madrid at home, then 2-3 away to Levante. The pattern is alarming defensively: seven goals conceded in those three games, including a chaotic 5-goal match at Levante where they allowed 35 shots and 15 corners. Over the last five, they have shipped an average of 2.0 goals per game, with an xG against of 1.98 and no clean sheets, suggesting defensive frailty that could tilt the balance Getafe’s way. From the advanced metrics, Getafe look the more balanced side: 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average in their last five, supported by xG figures of 1.312 for and 1.036 against. Osasuna’s attack has been modest (1.0 goals per game, 0.878 xG for), while their defensive numbers are clearly worse, reinforcing the idea of a narrow home edge rather than a free-flowing contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s main call is under 2.5, with only a 36.0% probability that the game goes over 2.5 goals. Two of Getafe’s last three matches finished under 2.5 (1-0 and 0-0), with only the 3-1 win over Mallorca going over. For Osasuna, two of their last three went over 2.5 (2-3 at Levante and 1-2 v Atlético), but their five-game averages of 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, alongside relatively modest xG for both sides, point towards a cagey encounter despite recent open games from Osasuna. Overall, the under 2.5 prediction fits better with Getafe’s control-oriented style and Osasuna’s low attacking xG.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 8.97, hinting at a moderate corners prediction rather than an end-to-end aerial bombardment. Getafe’s last three produced 4, 6 and 10 corners respectively (total 20), showing they can generate set-piece pressure, particularly in that 9-1 corners blowout at Oviedo. Osasuna, meanwhile, were involved in corner-heavy games at home (11 and 12 total v Espanyol and Atlético) but a lopsided 16 at Levante, where they conceded 15, suggests a team often pinned back rather than relentlessly attacking. That blend of one proactive home side and one reactive away side supports the roughly nine predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 21.76 expected shots in total, which fits the profile of a tight but competitive mid-table clash. Getafe’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 14, 15 and a remarkable 30 at Oviedo, where they fired 22 efforts themselves, consistent with their solid attacking xG. Osasuna’s recent games were wildly one-sided in terms of attempts: 31 and 28 total shots in their two home defeats, then 40 at Levante, but in all three they took far fewer shots than they allowed. Given their recent xG for of 0.878 and the pattern of absorbing pressure, the expected shots number reflects Getafe doing more of the probing, with Osasuna looking to counter when they can.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Getafe wins by X goals. Negative = Osasuna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Getafe vs Osasuna with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Getafe vs Osasuna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is very tight, with an expected spread of +0.09 in favor of Getafe, effectively calling a marginal home advantage. Over their last three, Getafe’s goal difference is +2 (3 scored, 1 conceded), while Osasuna’s is -3 (4 scored, 7 conceded), and those trends align with the model’s slight lean towards the hosts. With win probabilities evenly split at 37.0% each but Getafe boasting better defensive metrics (1.036 xG against versus Osasuna’s 1.98), the expected spread backing a narrow home win is consistent with both the numbers and the teams’ recent form.

Final Prediction

Getafe’s edge comes from defensive solidity and a more stable xG profile, combined with Osasuna’s porous back line and three straight defeats. In a low-scoring game where under 2.5 looks more likely, one moment from a set piece or a rare clear chance could decide it. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna can withstand Getafe’s territorial pressure without conceding the kind of volume of chances that has repeatedly undone them in recent weeks.

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