La Liga 2025-2026: Getafe vs Sevilla Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Getafe

Home Team
54%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
23%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 22.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Getafe W W D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)

Sevilla D D L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Getafe

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.80
# Clean Sheets: 2

Sevilla

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.19
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Getafe are slight but clear favourites here, with a 54.0% probability of a home win against Sevilla’s 23.0%, and the draw also at 23.0%. The model leans towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% chance of over, so the edge is on the under), in keeping with Getafe’s low-scoring profile. In the table, Getafe sit 11th on 29 points, just ahead of 13th‑placed Sevilla on 26 points, so this is a direct mid-table clash with both still glancing nervously over their shoulders.

Match Analysis

Getafe arrive in better form and with more momentum. They are unbeaten in their last three, with back‑to‑back wins over Villarreal (2-1 at home) and Alavés (2-0 away) before a goalless draw against Celta. Those results show a mix of resilience and efficiency: only one goal conceded across the last two games, and two clean sheets in their last five. The recent shot numbers – 5, 17 and 9 attempts – underline a team that doesn’t always bombard the opposition but can be clinical when chances come. Sevilla, by contrast, look fragile. They are winless in their last three: 1-1 home draws against Alavés and Girona, followed by a heavy 4-1 defeat away to Mallorca. Defensively they’ve been leaky, conceding 2.2 goals per game on average across the last five and failing to keep a single clean sheet in that span. Interestingly, their attacking underlying numbers are better than the results suggest, with 1.538 xG per game in the last five, but they are also giving up 2.186 xG, which explains why they’re struggling to control matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an under 2.5 outcome despite a 44.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, signalling a slight edge for a low‑scoring contest. Two of Getafe’s last three league games finished under 2.5 goals (2-0, 0-0), with only the 2-1 win over Villarreal going above the line; their five‑game averages of 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, supported by xG of 0.65 for and 0.798 against, point clearly towards tight affairs. Sevilla’s last three have twice landed under 2.5 (1-1, 1-1) and once gone over in that 4-1 loss, but their recent defensive issues mean the over 2.5 prediction can’t be fully ruled out; still, the numbers tilt this matchup towards under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.53 total corners, suggesting a moderate but not explosive game in wide areas. Getafe’s last three have seen combined corner counts of 7, 9 and 8 (they earned 3, 3 and 5 themselves), hinting at a relatively controlled, compact style. Sevilla’s games have been a bit more variable – 3, 12 and 12 total corners, with them winning 0, 5 and 8 – which fits a team often chasing matches and pushing late. Put together, the predicted corners total around 9–10 fits the profile of a balanced game with spells of pressure at both ends rather than relentless attacking.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 21.99, pointing to a contest with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not an end‑to‑end shootout. Getafe’s last three have featured a combined 13, 30 and 14 shots, while Sevilla’s have had 16, 26 and 26 efforts in total, in line with this shots prediction hovering in the low‑20s. Given Sevilla’s higher attacking xG (1.538 per game) but weak defending, and Getafe’s more modest xG (0.65) backed by solid containment, a game with chances for both but not a barrage of attempts seems likely.

Final Prediction

Getafe’s edge comes from their recent solidity, home form and defensive metrics, which contrast sharply with Sevilla’s run of no clean sheets in five and an average of 2.2 goals conceded. If they can keep Sevilla’s attack close to that 1.0 goal output and maintain their own compact structure, the home side are well placed to grind out a narrow win. A key factor to watch will be how Sevilla’s vulnerable back line copes with Getafe’s opportunistic finishing in what should be a low‑scoring but tense encounter.

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