La Liga 2025-2026: Getafe vs Villarreal Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Getafe

Home Team
26%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
55%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 40%
Under 2.5: 60%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 22.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Getafe W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 2)

Villarreal W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Getafe

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 2

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are favored to win away at Getafe, with a 55.0% probability of an away victory compared to just 26.0% for the hosts and 19.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (40.0% chance of over 2.5, so value on the under) and even suggests a notable 48.0% chance of no team scoring. In the table, Villarreal are pushing for the Champions League spots in 4th on 45 points, while Getafe sit 11th on 26 points, closer to the pack in mid-table.

Match Analysis

Getafe come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three league games, with a 2-0 away win at Alaves followed by draws against Celta (0-0) and Girona (1-1). Those results underline their identity as a defensively solid, low-scoring side: across the last five matches they average just 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 2 clean sheets in that span. Their expected goals numbers (0.594 xG for and 0.694 xG against per game) confirm a cautious approach, built on keeping things compact rather than opening up. Villarreal, on the other hand, arrive with a much sharper attacking edge. They beat Espanol 4-1 at home, drew 2-2 away at Osasuna, and lost 0-2 to Real Madrid, with all three matches showing they are more open and stretched than Getafe. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed by 1.566 xG created and 1.37 xG allowed per game, but tellingly with 0 clean sheets in that run. That contrast suggests Villarreal’s firepower should eventually break down Getafe’s disciplined block, though it might not turn into a goal fest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an under 2.5 goals prediction, supported by only a 40.0% probability of over 2.5. Two of Villarreal’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Espanol, 2-2 vs Osasuna), but all three of Getafe’s recent fixtures stayed under 2.5 (2-0, 0-0, 1-1). Given Getafe’s averages of 0.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded and sub-1.0 xG for and against, their style tends to drag matches into narrow scorelines, which could cap Villarreal’s usually higher-scoring pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.22, hinting at a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme. Getafe’s last three games saw combined corner counts of 9, 8 and 7, while Villarreal’s produced 13, 8 and 12, which fits quite well with an expectation just above nine. Villarreal’s more attacking, front-foot style tends to generate more set-piece situations, while Getafe’s deeper block often concedes territory, so the predicted corners figure reflects a game where the away side pushes and the hosts absorb.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.82, suggesting a game with a decent but not frantic tempo in front of goal. Recently, Getafe’s matches have produced 30, 14 and 20 shots combined, while Villarreal’s have seen 19, 20 and 22, which aligns closely with this shots prediction. Given Villarreal’s higher xG (1.566 per game) and attacking averages, most of the expected shots should come from the visitors, with Getafe relying on fewer but potentially more selective chances.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, stronger recent goal output, and better attacking metrics give them the edge, even away from home. Getafe’s defensive discipline and low-scoring profile could keep things tight, but the visitors’ ability to consistently create higher xG suggests they are more likely to find the decisive moment. A key factor to watch will be whether Villarreal can turn territorial dominance into clear chances against Getafe’s compact defensive block.

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