La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Girona

Home Team
19%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
64%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Girona D L D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Bilbao L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 4 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.40
# Clean Sheets: 0

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.53
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are favoured to take all three points in Girona, with a strong 64.0% probability of an away win against just 19.0% for the hosts and 17.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 50.0% in a game between mid‑table Girona, 15th on 31 points, and European-chasing Athletic outside the current top five.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this one on a three‑match winless run: draws away at Levante (1–1) and Alavés (2–2) sandwiched a 1–2 home defeat to Celta. They’ve shown some fight going forward, scoring in all three games and creating plenty of corners and shots, but the defensive issues that have plagued their season (43 goals conceded in 27 league matches, worst in the top 15) remain obvious. Over the last five games they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with no clean sheets in that stretch, underlining how hard it is for them to shut teams down. Athletic Bilbao’s recent form is steadier: a 2–1 home win over Elche, a 1–1 draw away at Vallecano, and a narrow 0–1 defeat to leaders Barcelona. They’ve been competitive in every outing, generating 18 shots against Elche and 10 even against Barça, and their five‑game averages (1.4 goals scored, 1.6 conceded) suggest they’re generally able to impose themselves in attack, albeit while giving up chances at the other end. Both sides’ expected goals numbers are similar – Girona at 1.52 xG for and 1.40 xG against, Athletic at 1.48 xG for and 1.53 xG against – but with Girona stuck in the lower half and Athletic pushing higher, the visitors look more likely to convert that underlying production into points.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome, with a 50.0% edge despite a 54.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet. Two of Girona’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2–2 vs Alavés, 1–2 vs Celta), while the 1–1 draw at Levante stayed under; for Athletic, two of their last three were under 2.5 (0–1 vs Barcelona, 1–1 at Vallecano) and only the 2–1 win over Elche went over. With Girona averaging 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Athletic at 1.4 for and 1.6 against, plus both posting xG figures just under 1.6 per match, the over 2.5 prediction isn’t strongly backed by the data, so under 2.5 feels the more likely scenario in a controlled away performance.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.21 total corners, pointing to a moderately busy game from set pieces. Girona’s recent matches have produced 5, 16 and 13 total corners, showing they can be involved in both low and high‑volume contests, often driven by their need to chase games. Athletic’s last three have seen 6, 9 and 5 corners, suggesting a more measured, structured attacking game. Combining Girona’s willingness to push on, especially at home, with Athletic’s capacity to build pressure over time, the predicted corners total around nine fits the balance between a proactive away side and a home team that relies on wide attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 25.43 expected shots in the match, we should see a reasonable amount of goalmouth action without it becoming a shoot‑out. Girona’s last three games featured 22, 15 and 10 shots for them, while they allowed 14, 7 and 17 respectively – numbers that point to an open, transition-heavy style. Athletic have posted 10, 8 and 18 efforts in their last three, while restricting opponents to 7, 15 and just 2 shots, closely matching their xG profile of 1.48 created and 1.53 conceded. That blend of volume and quality supports this shots prediction, with the expected shots total reflecting Athletic’s capacity to generate chances and Girona’s vulnerability without the ball.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s edge comes from their greater consistency, higher league position, and ability to control games against a Girona side still leaking too many goals and chances. The visitors’ more reliable attacking structure, combined with Girona’s lack of clean sheets in their last five, justifies the strong 64.0% away‑win probability. A key factor to watch will be how Girona’s defence copes with Athletic’s sustained pressure: if the home back line cracks early, the under‑dog hosts could be chasing the game from the outset.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel