La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Barcelona Prediction - 16 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Girona

Home Team
1%
VS

Barcelona

Away Team
98%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 28.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Girona D L D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Barcelona W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 2

Barcelona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 4.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.82
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona are overwhelming favourites here, with a 98.0% probability of an away win against a Girona side given just a 1.0% chance, and only a 1.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% probability. In the table, Barcelona sit top of La Liga with 58 points from 23 games, while Girona are 12th on 26 points, much closer to the relegation fight than the European places.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this still looking for rhythm: two draws and a defeat in their last three (1-1 at Sevilla, 0-1 at Oviedo, 1-1 at home to Getafe). They’ve struggled in front of goal, scoring just twice across those fixtures, and their season-long goal difference of -15 (22 scored, 37 conceded) reflects a side that often suffers defensively. Their recent averages back that up: 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game in the last five, with xG for at 1.086 but xG against notably higher at 1.564, suggesting opponents are regularly creating the better chances. Barcelona, by contrast, are in commanding form with three straight wins: 3-0 vs Mallorca, 3-1 at Elche and 3-0 vs Oviedo. They’re free-scoring, with 63 goals in 23 league matches and an enormous +40 goal difference, and their last five games show an attack in full flow: 2.6 goals scored per match from an even bigger 4.108 expected goals. Even while conceding 1.2 goals on average with xG against at 1.82, their ability to outscore opponents has been decisive, backed by three clean sheets in the last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 60.0% probability. Two of Barcelona’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0, 3-1, 3-0), while all three of Girona’s most recent games have stayed under 2.5 (2, 1 and 2 total goals). However, Barcelona’s averages of 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, combined with very high attacking xG, plus Girona’s higher xG conceded, support the idea that if Barça impose their game, the contest is more likely to break the 2.5-goal line than not.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.54, which fits well with both teams’ recent numbers. Girona’s last three outings have produced combined corner counts of 12, 8 and 7, while Barcelona’s have seen 15, 10 and 11, underlining how Barça’s aggressive attacking style and territorial dominance tend to drive up the corners prediction. With Barcelona regularly racking up double-digit corners (12 vs Mallorca, 10 vs Oviedo), a match around the 9–10 corner mark looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 28.03 in total. That sits neatly between the recent patterns: Girona games have had 26, 17 and 20 shots overall, while Barcelona’s have seen 33, 39 and 27, reflecting their capacity to generate volume in front of goal. Given Barça’s high xG (4.108 per game over the last five) and their shot-heavy performances, this shots prediction suggests a match where the league leaders do most of the attacking and Girona look to survive and counter.

Final Prediction

Barcelona’s edge comes from their superior league position, red-hot attack and much stronger underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch. Girona’s relatively low scoring rate and higher xG conceded make it hard to see them matching the leaders over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be how long Girona can keep Barcelona’s front line quiet; if the early pressure turns into a quick goal, the game could open up exactly as the projections suggest.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel