La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Betis Prediction - 21 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Girona

Home Team
32%
VS

Betis

Away Team
42%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Girona D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)

Betis D D L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

xG (avg) 1.66
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 2

Betis

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Betis are slight favourites here, with a 42.0% chance of an away win compared to Girona’s 32.0%, and a 26.0% probability of a draw, so the edge goes to the Andalusians. The model leans towards a tight affair with an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% probability of over, so only a marginal tilt to the “under”). In the table, Betis sit higher in 5th on 46 points chasing the Champions League spots, while Girona are 12th on 38 points and still looking over their shoulder at the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this on a mixed run: an impressive 1-1 draw away at Real Madrid, a gritty 1-0 home win over high-flying Villarreal, and a narrow 0-1 defeat at Osasuna. Those three games underline a more solid, pragmatic Girona – just two goals conceded across that spell – after earlier defensive issues. Their recent underlying numbers back that up: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded on average in the last five, with xG for at 1.664 and xG against at 1.384, plus two clean sheets in that run. Betis, meanwhile, have stalled a little: back-to-back draws (1-1 at Osasuna, 0-0 at home to Espanyol) followed a 1-2 defeat away at Athletic Bilbao. The pattern is of a side that competes but isn’t killing games off, scoring just three times in those last three matches. Over the last five, Betis average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG for at 1.028 and xG against at 1.128 – numbers that suggest balance but not the sharpness of a top-four attack. Even so, their higher league position and consistency over the season explain why they are marginally fancied.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
The call is under 2.5, despite the over 2.5 prediction probability sitting at 46.0%, which indicates a fairly even split but a slight lean towards a low-scoring contest. All three of Girona’s last matches have finished under 2.5 goals (2, 1 and 1 total goals), and the same goes for Betis, whose last three also stayed under (2, 0 and 3 total goals). Combined with Girona’s average of 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Betis’ 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus relatively modest xG figures on both sides, a cagey game under 2.5 looks more likely than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Betis
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.36 total corners, which fits with what both teams have produced lately. Girona’s last three have seen corner counts of 1-10, 7-4 and 2-6, showing they can be forced back but also generate a flurry when on the front foot at home. Betis have had 3-6, 4-3 and 5-6, reflecting fairly balanced games without relentless wing play. With neither side an all-out, high-tempo crossing machine, a total just under double figures for predicted corners looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Betis
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.5, in line with how both teams have been playing. Girona’s last three matches produced shot totals of 10-22, 10-9 and 5-19, showing they are often outshot away but more competitive at home. Betis have posted 8-12, 19-8 and 11-11, which ties into their steady but unspectacular attacking profile and xG around the 1.0 mark. With both sides averaging around one to two goals’ worth of chances recently, a shots prediction in the mid-20s feels consistent with their xG and overall attacking output.

Final Prediction

Betis’ edge comes from their higher league position, slightly better season-long consistency, and a model that gives them a 42.0% chance of taking all three points. Girona’s recent defensive tightening, however, should keep this close and lends weight to the under 2.5 call. The key factor to watch will be whether Betis can turn their slim xG advantage into clinical finishing, or whether Girona’s new-found resilience at home frustrates another top-five opponent.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel