La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Elche Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Girona

Home Team
58%
VS

Elche

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Girona L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)

Elche W L D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 0

Elche

xG (avg) 0.92
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Girona are favoured to take all three points at Montilivi, with a 58.0% probability of a home win against an Elche side given just a 21.0% chance, and the same 21.0% on the draw. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% implied probability. In the table, Elche sit 17th on 42 points, just ahead of 18th-placed Girona on 40, so this is a straight relegation dogfight.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this with two draws and a narrow defeat from their last three outings. The numbers suggest they have been more competitive than the results: a 1-1 home draw with Sociedad saw them rack up 29 shots to 6, and they also held Vallecano 1-1 away despite being outshot 18-9. Even the 1-0 loss at Atlético Madrid featured 25 Girona efforts on goal. Over the last five games they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by strong underlying figures of 1.808 xG for and 1.104 xG against, though they haven’t managed a clean sheet in that stretch. Elche, by contrast, have mixed a crucial 1-0 home win over Getafe with a 2-1 defeat at Betis and a 1-1 draw against Alavés. They’ve been in every game but rarely dominant, with shot counts of 10-4, 8-16 and 16-12 across those fixtures. Their five-game averages – 1.0 goals scored, 2.2 conceded – underline a leaky defence, and the xG profile (0.916 for, 1.486 against) paints them as second-best in most departments. Girona’s superior chance creation and slightly tighter defence explain why the expected goal spread leans their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction sits at just 46.0%, so the call is under 2.5 as the likelier outcome. Only one of Elche’s last three matches has gone over 2.5 goals (the 2-1 loss at Betis), while all three of Girona’s recent games have finished with two goals or fewer (1-0, 1-1, 1-1). With Girona averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Elche at 1.0 for and 2.2 against, plus relatively modest xG at both ends, a cautious, nervy scoreline feels in line with the data.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Elche
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.47 total corners, suggesting a moderately open game without being relentless end-to-end. Girona’s last three have produced 17, 9 and 14 corners respectively, reflecting their willingness to shoot and attack from wide areas. Elche’s matches have seen 4, 9 and 10 corners, more in line with the predicted corners total and hinting at a game where Girona’s front-foot style drives the count up, while Elche contribute more sporadically.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Elche
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.16 for the match, which fits both teams’ recent patterns. Girona’s last three games have featured 25, 35 and 27 total shots, showing how their fixtures often become volume affairs in front of goal. Elche’s recent totals of 14, 24 and 28 shots also align with this shots prediction, and tie in with the xG numbers that portray Girona as the side more likely to turn pressure into chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Girona wins by X goals. Negative = Elche wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Girona vs Elche with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Girona vs Elche
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.62 in Girona’s favour, effectively rating them as narrow but clear favourites. Across their last three, Girona have drawn twice and lost once, but never by more than one goal, while Elche have one-goal margins in all three games (1-0, 1-2, 1-1). Given Girona’s better recent xG differential (1.808 for, 1.104 against) versus Elche’s negative balance, the spread matches the 58.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

Girona’s edge lies in their superior chance creation and more balanced defensive record, backed up by both recent performances and the expected spread. Elche will try to drag this into a scrap, but over 90 minutes Girona’s volume of shots and territorial pressure should tell. The key factor to watch is whether Girona can finally match their xG with clinical finishing in a match that could decide who stays in La Liga.

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