La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Mallorca Prediction - 1 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Girona

Home Team
52%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Girona L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 1)

Mallorca L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 1

Mallorca

xG (avg) 0.76
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Girona are slight favourites at Montilivi, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points against a Mallorca side given a 25.0% chance, while the draw sits at 23.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals. In the current La Liga table, Girona are 15th on 38 points, just three clear of 17th‑placed Mallorca on 35, so this is a direct late-season scrap in the lower half.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this on a three‑game winless run (two defeats and a draw), but performances haven’t been disastrous. They pushed Betis in a 2-3 home loss and earned a point away at Real Madrid in a 1-1 draw, showing they can still create chances even against stronger sides. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, with xG at 1.81 for and 1.41 against – underlying numbers that look more mid‑table than relegation-threatened. Mallorca’s form is more erratic: a heavy 3-0 win over Vallecano at home was followed by a solid 1-1 draw with Valencia, but they then fell 2-1 at Alavés, mustering just four shots. Their issues are clear in the metrics: only 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average in the last five, with xG of just 0.76 going forward and 2.29 against. That contrast in attacking output and defensive fragility is a big part of why Girona carry the edge in the winner probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0%, and the recent scores support the idea of goals. Two of Girona’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3 and 5 total goals), while Mallorca have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5, but all three had at least two goals. With Girona averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded and Mallorca allowing 2.2 per game, alongside Girona’s higher xG, the balance tilts slightly towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.51, suggesting a fairly typical La Liga game rather than a siege. Girona’s last three matches produced corner counts of 8, 4 and 11 (they often concede territory, as seen with the 1-10 count at Madrid), while Mallorca’s games ended with 13, 11 and 13 total corners. This corners prediction reflects Girona’s willingness to soak up pressure and Mallorca’s need to chase points, combining into a match likely to sit around that 9–10 corner mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.13 for the match, which fits with what both sides have produced lately. Girona’s last three have seen 19, 16 and 32 total shots, while Mallorca’s three most recent featured 19, 30 and 19 attempts. Given Girona’s stronger xG profile and Mallorca’s tendency to allow chances, this shots prediction points to Girona generating the clearer opportunities even if the shot count is fairly balanced.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Girona wins by X goals. Negative = Mallorca wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Girona vs Mallorca with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Girona vs Mallorca
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Girona -0.5, meaning the home side are expected to edge it by a single goal. Across the last three games, Girona’s goal difference is -2 (4 scored, 6 conceded), while Mallorca’s is also -2 (5 for, 7 against), but Girona’s better attacking numbers and tighter defence over the last five tilt the expected spread their way. That aligns neatly with the 52.0% home‑win probability and the sense that Girona have a bit more balance at both ends.

Final Prediction

Girona’s more reliable attacking output, stronger xG figures and home advantage give them the slight but real edge over a Mallorca team that struggles to create consistent chances. Mallorca’s vulnerability without the ball could be decisive if Girona impose themselves early. A key factor to watch will be whether Mallorca can contain Girona’s attack long enough to drag the game into the tight, low‑margin battle they prefer.

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