La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Sociedad Prediction - 14 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Girona

Home Team
43%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
32%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Girona D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Sociedad D L D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 0

Sociedad

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 2.44
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Girona are marginal favourites at Montilivi, with a 43.0% chance of victory compared to Sociedad’s 32.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides’ recent defensive issues. In the table, Sociedad sit 8th on 44 points while Girona are 17th on 39, still hovering just above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this under pressure after taking just one point from their last three league games: a 1-1 draw at Vallecano, followed by a 0-1 home defeat to Mallorca and a 1-2 loss away at Valencia. The performances haven’t been as poor as the results suggest – they created 14 shots to Mallorca’s 8 and matched Valencia for long spells – but the lack of a cutting edge and zero clean sheets in their last five matches is keeping them stuck in the bottom half. Sociedad’s form is equally uneven. They’ve drawn two of their last three – a wild 3-3 at Vallecano and a 2-2 home draw with Betis – either side of a flat 0-1 defeat away to Sevilla. The numbers underline their fragility: they concede an average of 2.0 goals over the last five, with an expected goals against of 2.438, and like Girona, they have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch. Offensively, both sides average 1.4 goals over their last five, but Girona’s attacking xG (1.584) is notably healthier than Sociedad’s 0.94, suggesting the hosts are fashioning better chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an under 2.5 goals prediction, with a 47.0% probability on under and only a slim overall chance of a high-scoring game. Two of Girona’s last three matches finished under 2.5 (0-1 vs Mallorca, 1-1 at Vallecano), while Sociedad have gone over 2.5 in two of their last three (3-3 at Vallecano, 2-2 vs Betis). Girona’s balance of 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, along with xG for and against sitting close together (1.584 and 1.134), points to a tight contest despite Sociedad’s more chaotic recent scorelines.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.41, pointing to a game with a decent but not extreme amount of wide play and pressure. Girona’s last three outings saw corner counts of 5-9, 5-2 and 4-4, showing they can both force and concede plenty when they push forward at home. Sociedad’s recent pattern – 4-3 vs Betis, 3-3 at Sevilla, 4-6 at Vallecano – supports a moderate corners prediction, consistent with two sides that build attacks steadily rather than relentlessly bombarding the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stand at 25.22 in total, suggesting a fairly open encounter without being end-to-end. Girona’s last three matches produced 9, 14 and 7 shots for them, while allowing 18, 8 and 12, so they tend to be involved in matches with respectable shot volumes. Sociedad’s recent figures are even more eye-catching: they’ve taken 14, 6 and 13 shots but faced 14, 19 and 24, which aligns with a shots prediction that anticipates both defences being worked and the xG numbers reflecting regular – if not always clear-cut – opportunities.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Girona wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Girona vs Sociedad with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Girona vs Sociedad
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Girona at +0.17, a narrow expected spread that mirrors their 43.0% win chance and Sociedad’s 32.0%. Over the last three games, Girona’s goal difference is -2 (2 scored, 4 conceded), while Sociedad’s is also -2 (5 scored, 7 conceded), underlining how little separates these sides right now. Girona’s slightly better attacking xG and marginally tighter expected defensive numbers tilt the expected spread in favour of the home team.

Final Prediction

Girona’s edge comes from home advantage and a more convincing underlying attacking profile, even if recent results haven’t fully rewarded their play. Sociedad’s leaky defence and high xG against leave them vulnerable, especially away from home. The key factor to watch will be whether Girona can finally convert their chances at a higher rate against a visiting back line that has been under siege in recent weeks.

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