La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Villarreal Prediction - 6 Apr 2026

Girona come into this with a mixed run: a 3-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao sandwiched between a 1-1 draw at Levante and a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Osasuna. Those three games suggest a side that can control matches in spells – 22 shots at Levante and 14 at home to Athletic – but still struggle to turn dominance into goals on a consistent basis. Defensively, they’ve been relatively solid of late: just two goals conceded across those three fixtures, including one clean sheet. Villarreal, chasing Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top end of the table, look in decent shape themselves: a 3-1 home win over Sociedad, a 2-1 victory against Elche and a 1-1 draw away at Alavés. They’ve scored at least once in each of the last three, and put up 21 shots versus Sociedad and 16 against Elche, underlining their capacity to sustain pressure. However, the advanced metrics show a team that can be got at: they’ve conceded an average of 1.8 goals over their last five games, with expected goals against at 1.672 per match and no clean sheets in that spell. From an analytical point of view, Girona’s recent averages (1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded, with xG for at 1.73 and xG against at 1.542) suggest a side performing broadly in line with their underlying numbers. Villarreal’s attack (1.2 goals from 1.302 xG) is steady rather than explosive, while their defence is allowing decent chances. This combination tilts the balance towards Villarreal’s greater quality but also hints at a tight scoreline rather than a goal glut.