La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Alaves Prediction - 27 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Levante

Home Team
20%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
63%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Levante L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)

Alaves D D L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 1

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alavés are clear favourites here, with a 63.0% probability of taking all three points away to a Levante side given just a 20.0% chance of victory and sitting 19th in La Liga, five points behind 14th‑placed Alavés. The model leans towards a high‑event game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0% and both teams expected to score (58.0% chance of a “goal/goal” outcome).

Match Analysis

Levante come into this under heavy pressure and on a three‑game losing streak: 0-3 at Barcelona, then back‑to‑back home defeats to Villarreal (0-1) and Valencia (0-2). The most worrying part is the lack of cutting edge – three straight games without scoring – even though they’ve been able to create a reasonable volume of shots at home (16 vs Villarreal, 9 vs Valencia). Their recent advanced numbers are paradoxical: they’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in the last five, yet their xG is healthier at 1.412 for and 1.196 against, plus one clean sheet in that stretch. That suggests the performances haven’t been as bad as the recent scorelines, but they are paying a heavy price for poor finishing at both ends. Alavés, 14th and looking to push themselves clear of the relegation fight, have drawn their last two against Girona (2-2) and Sevilla (1-1) after a 0-2 home loss to Getafe. Those two draws show a side capable of creating chances – 17 shots versus Girona, 12 at Sevilla – but they’ve also looked fragile, conceding four goals across those two games. Their last five outings underline that imbalance: 0.8 goals scored on average, but a leaky 1.8 conceded, from xG figures of 1.096 for and 1.418 against, and no clean sheets. Even so, their greater stability in the table and slightly stronger underlying attack give them a clear statistical edge over a Levante side that simply cannot turn xG into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is marginally favoured at 51.0%, and the recent patterns give some support to that view. Two of Alavés’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Girona, following 1-1 and 0-2), while all three of Levante’s have finished under 2.5, largely because Levante have failed to score. However, both teams’ recent averages – Levante at 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Alavés at 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded – align with their xG numbers to hint at a game where the chances created could finally translate into three or more goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.72 total corners, which fits how both sides have been playing. Levante’s last three matches have produced 9, 5 and 5 corners respectively, suggesting that when they are pinned back, as at Barcelona (6-13), the count can rise, but their more even home games stay lower. Alavés have been slightly more consistent in forcing set‑piece situations, with corner totals of 13 (7-6 vs Girona), 3 (3-0 at Sevilla) and 9 (6-3 vs Getafe). With both teams reliant on crossing and wide play to generate danger, a figure around 9–10 predicted corners looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 25.39, and recent evidence points in the same direction. Levante’s last three have seen 27, 31 and 14 total shots, while Alavés’ games have produced 27, 16 and 30 efforts, backing up a mid‑20s to low‑30s shots prediction. Given both sides’ xG profiles and tendency to allow opportunities – particularly Alavés’ 1.418 expected goals conceded recently – supporters can reasonably expect a match where chances come regularly, even if finishing quality is variable.

Final Prediction

Alavés have the edge thanks to their higher league standing, better recent results and slightly stronger attacking metrics, which justify their 63.0% win probability despite their defensive issues. Levante’s inability to convert reasonable xG into goals is the major concern for the home side. The key factor to watch will be whether Levante can finally turn their shooting volume into actual goals or whether Alavés’ more clinical edge tilts a high‑chance game decisively in the visitors’ favour.

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