La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Oviedo Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Levante

Home Team
59%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 28.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Levante D D W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)

Oviedo W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 1

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 2.30
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Levante are favoured to take all three points, with a 59.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just a 21.0% chance, matching the 21.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a lively game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0%. In the context of the table, 19th‑placed Levante (23 points) and 20th‑placed Oviedo (21 points) are locked in a direct relegation fight, making this a true six‑pointer.

Match Analysis

Levante come into this on a three‑match unbeaten run: draws away at Vallecano (1‑1) and at home to Girona (1‑1), followed by a crucial 2‑0 home win over Alaves. The pattern is clear: they’re hard to beat, defensively tighter, and creating a fair amount of play – 19, 14 and 22 shots respectively, with strong corner numbers in their last two home games (10 against Alaves, 2 vs Girona but 6 earlier at Vallecano). Over the last five matches they’ve only conceded 0.8 goals per game on average, with one clean sheet, while their attacking output of 0.6 goals per game is underpinned by a much healthier 1.246 expected goals, suggesting room for finishing improvement rather than a lack of chances. Oviedo, bottom of the table, are more erratic. They’ve taken a morale‑boosting 1‑0 home win over Valencia, but that’s sandwiched between a heavy 3‑0 defeat at Vallecano and a backs‑to‑the‑wall 1‑1 draw at Espanyol where they were out‑shot 28‑6 and out‑cornered 8‑0. Their last five games show they score more often than Levante (1.2 goals per match) but ship a lot at the other end, conceding 2.6 on average with only one clean sheet. The underlying numbers back that up: 1.1 xG for and a worrying 2.302 xG against per game, pointing to a defence that allows frequent high‑quality chances – dangerous against a Levante side that have been steadily improving in their build‑up play.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an over 2.5 prediction with a 58.0% probability, and the recent patterns support the idea of a game that could open up. All of Levante’s last three outings (1‑1, 1‑1, 2‑0) have stayed under 2.5, but their xG profile of 1.246 for and 1.396 against suggests their matches are primed for more goals than the raw results show. Oviedo, meanwhile, have seen one of their last three go over 2.5 (0‑3 at Vallecano) and two stay under, yet their average of 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded, plus 2.302 xG against, point towards a side often exposed defensively; if Levante convert their chances more efficiently, this fixture can easily tip past the 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 10.01, which fits with the evidence of both teams’ recent matches. Levante’s last three have produced 11, 5 and 16 corners respectively, with the hosts themselves posting double‑figure totals in two of those games (6, 2, 10 for Levante alone), reflecting a team that builds pressure and sustains attacks at home. Oviedo’s recent numbers — 11, 8 and 14 total corners in their games, with their opponents racking up big tallies (Valencia 7, Espanyol 8, Vallecano 12) — show they often find themselves under siege. That dynamic should feed into a corners prediction around the 10 mark, with Levante’s attacking approach and Oviedo’s deep defending combining to generate a steady stream of set‑pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 28.02 looks realistic given how both sides have been playing. Levante matches have recently featured 37, 36 and 39 shots in total, with the hosts contributing heavily – 19, 14 and 22 attempts – in a clear sign of a team increasingly willing to pull the trigger. Oviedo’s games have been more mixed (24, 34 and 27 total shots), but they regularly face high shot volumes, especially away from home. With Levante’s xG of 1.246 and Oviedo conceding 2.302 xG on average, the shots prediction points towards a match where the home side generate enough efforts to eventually turn pressure into goals.

Final Prediction

Levante’s edge comes from a combination of stronger defensive numbers, home advantage and a more stable shot‑creation profile, all reflected in their 59.0% win probability. Oviedo can threaten on the break and do find the net reasonably often, but their leaky back line is a major concern in such a high‑stakes relegation clash. The key factor to watch will be how long Oviedo’s defence can withstand Levante’s sustained pressure in terms of shots and corners; if the dam breaks early, the home side should justify their status as favourites.

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