La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Sevilla Prediction - 23 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Levante

Home Team
57%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
22%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Levante W L W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)

Sevilla W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

xG (avg) 2.12
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 1

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.81
xGA (avg) 1.88
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Levante are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 57.0% probability of taking all three points against a Sevilla side given just a 22.0% chance, and the draw at 21.0%. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% for over, so a small edge to the under). In the table, Sevilla sit 16th on 34 points, while Levante are 19th on 29 points and fighting to escape the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Levante come in with momentum: two wins in their last three, both at home, including a dominant 1-0 against Getafe and a 4-2 thriller over Oviedo. Those matches showed a side creating plenty of chances — 22 shots versus Getafe and 20 against Oviedo — and looking far sharper in front of their own fans than their league position suggests. The loss at Sociedad (0-2) underlined their vulnerability away from home, but that doesn’t apply here. Sevilla, by contrast, are in a slump: two defeats in three and six goals conceded in that stretch. The win over Atlético Madrid (2-1) was a big result, but it sits between a flat 0-1 loss at Oviedo and a 0-2 home defeat to Valencia, where they struggled to turn possession into goals. The advanced numbers are worrying: Sevilla average just 0.812 expected goals for and 1.884 expected goals against over their last five matches, while Levante post 2.124 xG for and 1.45 xG against. That gap in chance creation and defensive solidity tilts this matchup towards the home side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, in line with the model’s lean towards a low‑scoring game. Levante’s last three have produced mixed signals: 1-0 and 0-2 (both under 2.5) plus the 4-2 win over Oviedo (over 2.5), so two of their last three went under. Sevilla’s recent run has been cagey on the scoresheet too: 2-1 versus Atlético (over), then 0-1 and 0-2 defeats (both under), again two unders from three. With Levante averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Sevilla at 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded, plus relatively modest xG numbers, the under 2.5 prediction makes sense despite one or two recent goal‑heavy outliers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.99, pointing towards a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from the flanks. Levante’s last three have produced 10, 16 and 4 corners respectively, while Sevilla’s have seen totals of 12, 14 and 4 — a wide range driven by how open the game becomes. Levante’s high‑shot home performances suggest they’ll force a fair number of set‑pieces, but Sevilla’s recent struggles going forward may keep the overall predicted corners tally just under double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.94, a figure that fits both teams’ recent patterns and underpins this shots prediction. Levante have racked up 22, 8 and 20 shots in their last three, showing they can generate volume, especially at home, while allowing 5, 18 and 10 in those games. Sevilla have taken 11, 9 and 13 shots, conceding 13, 7 and 9. Those numbers, combined with Levante’s 2.124 xG average and Sevilla’s 0.812, support an expected shots count in the mid‑20s, with the hosts likely edging the total.

Final Prediction

Levante’s recent surge in chance creation, stronger xG profile and home advantage give them a genuine edge over a Sevilla side leaking chances and short on confidence. The key factor to watch will be Levante’s attacking intensity: if they reproduce the shot volume and pressure seen against Getafe and Oviedo, Sevilla’s fragile defence could be overwhelmed again.

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