La Liga 2025-2026: Levante vs Valencia Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Levante

Home Team
29%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
49%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Levante L D W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)

Valencia L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Levante

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 1

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.91
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are slight but clear favourites here, with a 49.0% probability of an away win compared to Levante’s 29.0%, while the draw sits at 22.0%. The model leans towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for over, so a marginal edge to the “under”) despite expecting both teams to score. In the table, Valencia are 17th on 23 points, just above the drop, while Levante are 19th on 18 points, making this a direct relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Levante come in from a mixed but slightly improving run: a 3-2 home win over Elche, a gritty 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid, and a 4-2 defeat away to Athletic Bilbao. At home they’ve shown they can dominate mid-table sides, as seen with 26 shots and 9 corners against Elche, but they remain vulnerable defensively with 38 goals conceded in 22 league matches. Their recent averages – 1.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with xG of 1.45 for and 1.456 against – paint a picture of a team roughly creating as much as they allow, but lacking real margin for error. Valencia’s form is equally inconsistent: a 3-2 win over Espanyol was followed by a 2-1 defeat at Betis and a 2-0 home loss to Real Madrid. They’ve scored 1.0 and conceded 1.8 goals per game on average in their last five, with xG of 1.318 for and a worrying 1.908 against, suggesting they concede better chances than they create. That defensive softness explains their precarious 17th place, but their status as favourites reflects a slightly higher overall quality and more scoring threat than Levante over the season.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an under 2.5 outcome, even though the probability of over 2.5 goals is 48.0%, indicating a very fine margin in this over 2.5 prediction. Both teams have seen 2 of their last 3 matches go over 2.5 goals (Levante with 4-2, 0-0, 3-2; Valencia with 0-2, 1-2, 3-2), but their five-game averages of just 1.0 goal scored each and relatively modest xG (1.45 for Levante, 1.318 for Valencia) lean towards a tighter contest. In a high-stakes relegation clash, caution could further support the under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Levante
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.83, pointing to a medium-to-high corners prediction rather than an extreme outlier. Levante’s last three games produced 7, 11 and 10 corners, driven by their aggressive home displays (9 corners won versus Elche). Valencia’s games have had 13, 8 and 9 corners, showing that their matches often open up, especially when chasing results. Both sides’ tendency to attack via wide areas and rack up corners when behind fits well with the predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Levante
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stand at 24.95, suggesting a game with a decent amount of goalmouth action. Levante’s last three have seen shot counts of 6, 10 and 26 for them, while facing 22, 10 and 6, underlining how wildly their output can swing depending on game state. Valencia’s recent matches brought 7, 15 and 10 shots for, and 11, 14 and 16 against, which lines up closely with this shots prediction and their xG profile of 1.318 for and 1.908 against – they tend to allow plenty of attempts.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s edge comes from their slightly higher attacking ceiling and the model’s clear preference for an away win, even if both sides are stuck near the bottom. Levante’s home aggression and Valencia’s shaky defending should make this competitive, but Valencia’s greater probability of taking all three points reflects their ability to create just a bit more. A key factor to watch will be which midfield imposes itself early; control there could tilt a finely balanced, low-scoring derby.

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