La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Espanol Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
21%
VS

Espanol

Away Team
62%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Mallorca D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)

Espanol D D L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.59
# Clean Sheets: 0

Espanol

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.12
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Espanol head to Mallorca as clear favourites, with a 62.0% probability of taking all three points against just 21.0% for the hosts and 16.0% for the draw. The model leans towards an away win and an over 2.5 goals prediction, with a 50.0% chance of at least three goals. In the table, Espanol sit in the top half in 7th place on 37 points, while Mallorca are deep in relegation trouble in 18th with 25 points.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come into this one under pressure and short on results: a draw at Osasuna (2-2) was at least a point, but it followed back-to-back defeats to Sociedad (0-1) and Celta (0-2). More worrying is how they were outplayed: 8-22 shots at Osasuna, 6-12 against Sociedad and a bruising 1-20 at Celta, plus a 0-8 corner count in Pamplona. The Islanders look fragile, constantly on the back foot and unable to control games at either end. Yet their recent averages paint a slightly more positive attacking picture: 1.8 goals scored and 1.822 expected goals over the last five matches, against 1.6 conceded and 1.592 xG against. They are creating enough to threaten, but with zero clean sheets in that span, they simply cannot rely on their defence. Espanol arrive in better league shape but also on a three-game winless run: a 1-1 home draw with bottom-club Oviedo, a 2-2 at Elche and a 2-4 defeat at Atletico Madrid. They’ve been open games – 2, 4 and 6 total goals – and they’ve allowed plenty of efforts: 6, 17 and 18 shots faced respectively, despite occasionally dominating in attack (28 shots vs Oviedo). Across the last five games, they average 1.6 goals scored but a worrying 2.8 conceded, with 2.12 expected goals against and no clean sheets, suggesting a side that pushes forward but leaves itself exposed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 50.0% is backed by recent trends at both ends of the pitch. Two of Mallorca’s last three league matches finished under 2.5 (0-1 vs Sociedad, 0-2 at Celta), with only the 2-2 at Osasuna going over. Espanol, by contrast, have seen 2 out of their last 3 go over 2.5 (2-2 at Elche, 2-4 at Atletico) with the Oviedo draw (1-1) the lone under 2.5. With Mallorca averaging 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded and Espanol at 1.6 scored and 2.8 conceded, plus both sides’ xG numbers hovering around one goal for and against per game, a goal-heavy contest is a realistic outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match stand at 9.36, pointing to a reasonably busy afternoon from set plays without being extreme. Recent numbers support that: Mallorca’s last three games have produced corner totals of 8, 10 and 9, while Espanol’s have seen 8, 4 and 8. Given Espanol’s willingness to attack (28 shots and 8 corners versus Oviedo) and Mallorca’s tendency to be pinned back and concede territory, this corners prediction fits a game where the away side does most of the pressing.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots tally is 26.2, in line with what both teams have been involved in recently. Mallorca’s last three matches have featured 30, 18 and a huge 21 total shots, while Espanol’s have produced 34, 26 and 26 attempts. That volume marries well with the xG data: Mallorca at 1.822 xG for and Espanol at 1.192 suggest both will fashion chances, making this shots prediction credible for a lively encounter in and around both boxes.

Final Prediction

Espanol’s higher league position, superior squad depth and Mallorca’s defensive frailty give the visitors the edge, reflected in the 62.0% win probability. Mallorca’s home crowd and decent attacking xG keep them in the fight, but their lack of clean sheets is a glaring concern. The key factor to watch will be how Mallorca’s back line copes with sustained pressure; if Espanol find early joy in the final third, this could quickly tilt their way.

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