La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Oviedo Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Mallorca

Home Team
62%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
19%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Mallorca L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)

Oviedo L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 1

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca are clear favourites at Son Moix, with a 62.0% chance of taking all three points against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who are given just a 19.0% likelihood of an upset (19.0% draw). The model leans towards a home win by around one goal, reflected in an expected goal spread of +0.8 in Mallorca’s favour. With Mallorca 19th on 39 points and Oviedo 20th on 29, this is a straight survival shoot‑out, and the numbers point slightly towards an open game with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come in under pressure but with some encouraging underlying signs. They’ve taken only one point from their last three – defeats away to Levante (0-2) and Getafe (1-3) followed by a 1-1 home draw with third‑placed Villarreal – yet that Villarreal performance was strong: 18 shots to 7 and a narrow edge in corners. Over the last five matches, Mallorca are averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed by a healthy 1.904 expected goals created and 1.442 expected goals against, suggesting their recent results may actually undersell their level of play. Oviedo, by contrast, look very much like a team rooted to the bottom. They have failed to score in their last three outings – 0-1 at home to Alavés, 0-2 at Real Madrid and 0-0 at home to Getafe – and were heavily outshot in the last two (9-19 vs Madrid, 8-22 vs Getafe). Across the last five games they average 1.2 goals scored but 2.0 conceded, with 1.34 xG for and 1.85 xG against. Those figures underline a side that struggles to control matches and gives up more chances than it creates, a worrying combination ahead of a must‑win away day.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it at 51.0%, reflecting slightly more evidence for goals than for another cagey scrap. Two of Mallorca’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (0-2, 1-3, 1-1), while all three of Oviedo’s have finished under 2.5 (0-1, 0-2, 0-0). Even so, Mallorca’s averages of 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus their 1.904 xG in recent weeks, point to them generating enough threat to push the total beyond the under 2.5 line if they strike early.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.35 total corners, hinting at a fairly active game in wide areas. Mallorca’s last three have produced 10, 6 and 9 total corners, while Oviedo’s have seen 7, 9 and a hefty 10, including that 1-9 corner count when they were penned back by Getafe. With both sides likely to attack the flanks in search of a decisive result, the predicted corners number looks consistent with recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.18 attempts in total, in line with how these sides have been playing. Mallorca’s last three have brought 8, 9 and 18 shots of their own, while conceding 15, 6 and 7; Oviedo have managed 8, 9 and 8 shots but allowed 7, 19 and 22. Given Mallorca’s higher recent xG and Oviedo’s tendency to face a lot of attempts, the shots prediction points to the hosts driving much of the attacking volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Mallorca wins by X goals. Negative = Oviedo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Mallorca vs Oviedo with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Mallorca vs Oviedo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.8 for Mallorca underlines expectations of a home win by roughly a one‑goal margin. Over the last three games Mallorca’s goal difference is -3 (0-2, 1-3, 1-1), but their underlying numbers suggest they’re playing better than that; Oviedo sit at -3 as well (0-1, 0-2, 0-0) with weaker attacking output. Coupled with a 62.0% home‑win probability and Oviedo’s frailty at both ends, the expected spread logically leans towards Mallorca.

Final Prediction

Mallorca’s stronger attacking metrics, home advantage and Oviedo’s ongoing scoring drought give the islanders a clear statistical edge. If Mallorca can translate their recent xG and shot dominance into ruthlessness in the box, they should have enough to secure survival. A key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo can cope with sustained pressure; if they crack early, the match could quickly tilt Mallorca’s way.

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