La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Real Madrid Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
18%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
64%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Mallorca L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 2)

Real Madrid W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

xG (avg) 1.96
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 0

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 1.45
xGA (avg) 1.21
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid travel to Son Moix as strong favourites, with a 64.0% probability of taking all three points against an 18.0% chance for Mallorca and 18.0% for the draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% probability. Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga on 69 points, while Mallorca are 18th on 28 points and fighting to escape the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come into this under pressure but not without signs of life. In their last three games they’ve taken four points: a 2-1 home win over Espanyol, a 2-2 draw away at Osasuna and a 2-1 defeat at Elche. They’ve found the net consistently – scoring five in those three – but they’ve also conceded five and failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last five matches. Their recent averages (2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, with xG for at 1.956 and xG against at 1.57) show a team that creates and allows chances in roughly equal measure, hardly ideal when facing one of the league’s elite. Real Madrid, by contrast, are in the middle of a strong run. Three straight wins – 3-2 over Atlético, 4-1 against Elche and 2-1 at Celta – have kept them on Barcelona’s heels in the title race. They’re averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded across their last five, supported by 1.448 xG for and 1.21 xG against, figures that underline a generally controlled game script even if, like Mallorca, they haven’t managed a clean sheet in that spell. With 63 goals scored and a +37 goal difference over the season, they bring far more firepower and balance than their hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% is backed up by recent scorelines for both sides. All three of Mallorca’s latest matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3, 3 and 4 total goals), while all three of Madrid’s have also gone over (5, 5 and 3). The combination of Mallorca’s 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, alongside Madrid’s 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus healthy xG numbers on both sides, all point towards another open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.17 total corners, a mid-range figure that matches how these teams have been playing. Mallorca’s last three have produced 4, 11 and 8 total corners, reflecting games where they are often pinned back and concede territory, as seen in the 0-8 corner count at Osasuna. Madrid’s matches have featured 5, 9 and 7 corners, with them typically on the front foot (for example 6-1 at Celta), suggesting steady but not extreme pressure. That blend of one side defending deep and the other probing should roughly match the predicted corners total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected shots figure of 26.5 for the match, the shots prediction sits in line with both teams’ recent trends. Mallorca’s last three outings saw a combined 24, 36 and 30 shots, while Madrid’s had 30, 25 and 22, numbers that pair nicely with their xG profiles. Given Madrid’s consistent ability to generate attempts (17 vs Atlético, 14 vs Elche and Celta) and Mallorca’s habit of both attacking and allowing efforts, the expected shots total looks realistic for a game where the visitors should control most of the attacking volume.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid hold the clear edge thanks to their superior league position, more balanced attack and defence, and a recent run of three straight wins. Mallorca’s goal threat and desperate league situation mean they can trouble the visitors, but their inability to keep clean sheets is a major concern. The key factor to watch will be how long Mallorca can resist Madrid’s pressure; if the away side score first, their quality should carry them to the predicted victory.

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