La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Sociedad Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
16%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
70%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Mallorca L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 3)

Sociedad D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.47
# Clean Sheets: 0

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad travel to Mallorca as clear favourites, with a 70.0% probability of an away win against just 16.0% for the hosts and 14.0% for the draw. The visitors sit 10th in La Liga on 32 points, while Mallorca are 18th on 24 points and fighting to escape the relegation zone. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% and a goal for both sides rated at 56.0%.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come into this under pressure after three straight defeats: 0-2 at Celta, 1-2 at home to Betis, and 0-3 away to Barcelona. The worrying part is how overrun they’ve been: they lost the shots count 1-20 at Celta and 9-24 at Camp Nou, and even in the more even Betis game they still trailed 14-17. Yet the advanced numbers paint a slightly kinder picture – over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG of 2.188 for and 1.468 against, suggesting they can create and are perhaps underperforming results rather than being completely outclassed. Sociedad arrive with mixed form: a 3-3 home draw with bottom side Oviedo, a 1-4 defeat away to Real Madrid, and a solid 3-1 home win over Elche. They’ve shown they can score in bursts – six goals across the last two home matches – but also that they leak at the back, conceding eight in their last three outings. Their recent averages are more modest than Mallorca’s: 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per game over the last five, with xG at 1.448 for and 1.46 against, pointing to fairly balanced games where small moments decide things. Crucially, both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, which tilts the balance towards Sociedad’s stronger league position and greater overall stability.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, expecting this to edge into a higher-scoring contest. Two of Mallorca’s last three games have finished over 2.5 goals (1-2 vs Betis, 0-3 vs Barcelona), while one of Sociedad’s three has gone over – the 3-3 thriller against Oviedo – with the other two still producing four and five total goals. With Mallorca averaging 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded and Sociedad at 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded over their last five, and both xG profiles hovering around 2–3 combined goals per match, over 2.5 looks slightly more likely than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this game is 9.87, which fits with the recent numbers for both teams. Mallorca’s last three outings produced 9 corners vs Celta (2-7), 10 vs Betis (7-3), and 15 vs Barcelona (3-12), showing that when they’re pushed back they concede a flurry of corners. Sociedad’s last three matches brought 13 corners against Oviedo (7-6), 10 at Real Madrid (6-4), and 6 vs Elche (2-4), again close to that 10-mark average. Given Sociedad’s tendency to attack and pin opponents in their own half, the corners prediction around 10 feels realistic for a game where the away side should do most of the pressing.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 25.58, in line with how these two have been playing. Mallorca’s last three games saw them involved in matches with 21 shots vs Celta (1-20), 31 vs Betis (14-17), and 33 vs Barcelona (9-24), often on the back foot but still allowing high shot volumes. Sociedad’s recent fixtures delivered 29 shots against Oviedo (15-14), 24 at Madrid (13-11), and 22 vs Elche (11-11), again clustering around the mid-20s. With both sides’ xG profiles showing regular chance creation, a shots prediction around 25–26 looks well supported by the data.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s edge comes from their higher league position, more balanced underlying numbers, and Mallorca’s current three-game losing run and defensive frailty. The visitors look better equipped to turn their possession and shot volume into points against a side that has not kept a clean sheet in five matches. The key factor to watch will be how long Mallorca can resist Sociedad’s pressure; if the away side score first, their superiority in both quality and confidence should tell.

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