La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Valencia Prediction - 21 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
40%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
36%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Mallorca W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)

Valencia L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

xG (avg) 1.44
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.52
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca are slight favourites at Son Moix, with a 40.0% probability of taking all three points against a Valencia side given a 36.0% chance, and a 25.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both sides sitting next to each other in the table – Valencia 14th on 35 points and Mallorca 15th on 34.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come in with genuine momentum at home: back‑to‑back wins over Vallecano (3-0) and Real Madrid (2-1) have transformed the mood on the island, even if a 2-1 defeat at Elche last time out reminded them how fragile things still are. Across those three matches they have scored six and conceded three, showing more punch in attack than their season-long numbers suggest. Their recent averages – 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over the last five games, with 1.44 xG for and 1.56 xG against – paint a picture of a team making the most of their chances but still allowing opportunities at the other end. Valencia’s form is harder to read. They followed a solid 2-0 away win at Sevilla with two defeats: a chaotic 3-2 home loss to Celta and a frustrating 1-0 defeat at Elche despite dominating with 22 shots and nine corners. Over their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and only 0.8 conceded, underpinned by 1.52 xG for and 1.45 xG against – performances that suggest they are creating enough but not finishing consistently. With both teams hovering just above the relegation fight, the small margins suggested by those xG figures and the tight league positions point to a finely balanced contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 with a 53.0% implied probability (against 47.0% for over), even though there is a 55.0% chance that both teams score. All three of Mallorca’s recent matches finished with exactly three goals, meaning 3 out of 3 went over 2.5, while Valencia produced one low‑scoring game (0-1 vs Elche) and two matches with at least two goals (2-3 vs Celta, 2-0 vs Sevilla – 1 out of 3 over 2.5). The under 2.5 call in this over 2.5 prediction debate is supported by their five‑game averages: neither side is routinely scoring heavily, and both concede around or below one goal per match relative to xG.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.72, pointing towards a typical mid‑range corners prediction rather than an extreme. Mallorca’s last three games saw corner totals of 13, 10 and 4, while Valencia’s produced 14, 6 and 4 – both sides capable of racking up high numbers but also prone to quieter outings. With Valencia having hit nine corners alone at Elche and six at home to Celta, their tendency to push on from wide areas should help drive the predicted corners towards that 9–10 mark in what could be a fairly even territorial battle.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 24.79 expected shots overall, in line with what both teams have been producing. Mallorca’s recent games featured 29, 21 and 24 total shots, while Valencia’s saw 30, 22 and 22, underlining that neither side tends to play cagey, low‑volume football. Those shot counts match their xG profiles: both create around 1.5 expected goals per match, so a total in the mid‑20s for expected shots feels realistic for this encounter.

Final Prediction

Mallorca get the slight nod because of their recent home statement wins over Vallecano and Real Madrid, and because Valencia’s finishing has not matched their shot volumes. The key factor to watch will be Valencia’s ability to turn pressure into goals against a Mallorca side that is efficient in front of their own fans but still allows chances.

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