La Liga 2025-2026: Mallorca vs Vallecano Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Mallorca

Home Team
42%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
33%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Mallorca W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 1)

Vallecano W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mallorca

xG (avg) 1.54
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 0

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.88
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca are slight favourites at Son Moix, with a 42.0% chance of taking all three points against a Vallecano side given a 33.0% probability of victory and a 25.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite backing both teams to score (52.0% probability of a goal for each side). In the table, Vallecano sit 13th on 35 points, while Mallorca are 16th on 31 and still uncomfortably close to the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Mallorca come into this with confidence after two eye-catching home wins, 2-1 against both Real Madrid and Espanyol, either side of a narrow 2-1 defeat away at Elche. Those three matches show a clear pattern: competitive games, all decided by a single goal, and Mallorca especially strong on their own pitch – against Espanyol they unleashed 26 shots to 10. Over their last five games, they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, backed up by 1.542 expected goals (xG) for and 1.416 against, suggesting their recent improvement in attack is not a fluke. Vallecano’s recent form is more cautious: a 1-0 home win over Elche, a battling 0-1 defeat away to Barcelona, and a 1-1 draw with Levante. They’ve been hard to blow away but have lacked punch in front of goal, with just 0.6 goals scored per game in their last five. Interestingly, their xG is healthier at 1.22 per match, while they concede 1.882 xG and 1.6 actual goals on average, hinting that opponents are creating the better chances even when Vallecano see plenty of the ball.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 54.0% implied probability, and the recent scorelines support that stance despite Mallorca’s livelier attack. All of Mallorca’s last three games ended 2-1, meaning 3 out of 3 went over 2.5 goals, but Vallecano’s last three produced just three goals in total: 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1, so all 3 were under 2.5. With Mallorca’s averages (1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded) and Vallecano’s more modest 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures hovering close to 1–1.5 per match, a tight game edging towards the under 2.5 line looks the more solid over 2.5 prediction alternative.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.17 total corners, which fits both sides’ recent patterns. Mallorca’s last three have seen 10, 4 and 11 corners (they were out-cornered by Real Madrid and Espanyol but shared with Elche), while Vallecano’s games registered 13, 15 and 11 corners, reflecting their tendency to push high and pepper the box with crosses. With Vallecano usually forcing plenty of wide situations and Mallorca happy to soak pressure and break, a total near the expected corners figure of ten looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.53, which aligns well with how both teams have been playing. Mallorca’s last three shot counts read 6, 11 and a huge 26, while they’ve faced 15, 13 and 10 attempts, showing they can be involved in open contests, especially at home. Vallecano’s recent games produced 21, 8 and 18 shots for, and 9, 15 and 19 against; combined with their xG of 1.22 for and 1.882 against, this supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s as both teams generate chances without being ruthlessly efficient.

Final Prediction

Mallorca’s edge comes from their recent home form and a more convincing attacking output, both in goals and xG, compared to a Vallecano side that has struggled to turn possession into clear chances. Vallecano’s volume of shots and corners means they will ask questions, but Mallorca’s sharper finishing and home crowd could prove decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether Vallecano can finally match their shot volume with clinical edge, or if Mallorca’s more efficient attack makes the difference in a tight, low‑scoring battle.

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