La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 12 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
28%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
48%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: -0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Osasuna L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Madrid L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 0.76
Clean Sheets 0

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 2.11
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are favored to take all three points in Pamplona, with a 48.0% chance of an away win compared to Osasuna’s 28.0% at El Sadar. A draw sits at 24.0%, and the expected goal spread of -0.4 reflects a slight but clear edge for Diego Simeone’s side, who are 4th in La Liga against Osasuna in 11th. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 56.0% probability that both teams score at least once.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come into this one off a mixed run: a 2-1 home win over Sevilla, followed by a tight 1-2 home defeat to Barcelona and a wild 2-3 loss away at Levante. They have shown they can create – 15 shots against Sevilla and 9 against Barça – but the 5-35 shot count and 1-15 corners at Levante underline how vulnerable they can be when the game becomes stretched. Across their last five, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with very healthy attacking numbers in the background: 2.062 expected goals per game but only 0.758 xG conceded, suggesting recent scorelines have been harsher than their underlying play. Atlético Madrid’s last three tell a different story. They dominated Celta (20-3 shots, 10-0 corners) yet somehow lost 0-1, then delivered controlled wins over Valencia (2-0 away) and Athletic Bilbao (3-2 at home). Their attack is ticking along at 1.6 goals per game over the last five, but they’re also shipping 1.6, with opponents generating 2.108 xG per match against them. That defensive looseness is unusual for Atlético and is precisely why this trip to 11th-placed Osasuna won’t be straightforward for the side chasing Champions League football from 4th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, even if it expects both teams to find the net. Two of Osasuna’s last three (2-3 vs Levante, 2-1 vs Sevilla) went over 2.5 goals, with only the 1-2 loss to Barcelona staying just below that line. For Atlético, two of their last three also cleared it (3-2 vs Athletic, 2-0 at Valencia was under, 0-1 vs Celta under), but the relatively modest averages – 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded for Osasuna, 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded for Atlético – combined with xG figures point to a tight, tactical contest where the under 2.5 prediction is marginally favored.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.21, a moderate corners prediction that fits how these sides have been playing. Osasuna’s last three produced corner counts of 4-4 vs Sevilla, 3-7 vs Barcelona and just 1-15 at Levante, showing they can be pinned back by aggressive opponents. Atlético, meanwhile, piled up 10-0 corners against Celta and 7-1 at Valencia before a more balanced 3-4 vs Athletic; their tendency to press high and attack wide suggests they will drive most of the predicted corners here.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model anticipates 23.57 expected shots in total, again pointing to a competitive but not wild shoot-out. Osasuna’s last three shot tallies (15 vs Sevilla, 9 vs Barcelona, 5 at Levante) and what they’ve allowed (8, 13, 35 respectively) show that the game state heavily dictates their volume. Atlético’s recent numbers – 20 attempts in both the Celta and Valencia games, then 6 in the 3-2 win over Athletic – tie in well with their 1.154 xG per match, supporting a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s overall.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Ath Madrid with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Ath Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.4, giving Atlético a narrow theoretical advantage. Osasuna’s recent goal differences (-1 vs Levante, -1 vs Barcelona, +1 vs Sevilla) show they tend to stay within a single goal either way. Atlético’s last three (-1 vs Celta, +2 vs Valencia, +1 vs Athletic) are slightly stronger, and when allied to their higher win probability (48.0%) and greater attacking punch, the expected spread in favor of the away side is consistent.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid carry the edge thanks to their superior league position, stronger attacking output and ability to control territory through shots and corners, even when results don’t always follow. Osasuna’s impressive xG profile and home resilience, though, mean this should be tighter than the table suggests. The key battle will be Atlético’s front line against an Osasuna defence that concedes few clear chances on paper but has struggled to turn that into clean sheets on the pitch.

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