La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Barcelona Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
25%
VS

Barcelona

Away Team
53%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 8.1
Expected Shots: 21.8
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Osasuna W L D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Barcelona W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 0.85
Clean Sheets 1

Barcelona

xG (avg) 3.02
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona are favoured to take all three points in Pamplona, with a 53.0% chance of an away win against Osasuna’s 25.0%, and a draw at 22.0%. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 55.0% implied probability, despite Barca’s firepower. Top-of-the-table Barcelona (1st, 85 points) face 9th-placed Osasuna (42 points), who are safely mid-table but still pushing for a top-half finish.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come into this on a solid, if unspectacular, run: a 2-1 home win over Sevilla, a narrow 0-1 loss at Athletic Bilbao, and a 1-1 draw with Betis. They’ve been competitive in every outing, creating a decent volume of chances (15, 8 and 12 shots) and generally edging the shot count at home. Their recent advanced numbers are impressive for a side in ninth: 1.6 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded on average in the last five, backed by a strong 2.266 xG for and a miserly 0.848 xG against. That suggests Jagoba Arrasate’s team are creating more than they’re finishing and remaining hard to break down. Barcelona arrive in full title-cruise mode: three wins from three, beating Getafe 2-0 away, Celta 1-0 at home and Espanyol 4-1. They’ve tightened up defensively again, with two clean sheets in those games and three in their last five, conceding just 0.8 goals per match recently. Going forward, they remain relentless, averaging 1.8 goals with a hefty 3.022 xG per game, a sign they’re consistently generating big chances even when the scorelines look modest. That balance of attacking volume and a mean defence underpins why the expected goal spread sits at -0.62 in favour of the visitors.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5, with an under 2.5 prediction backed by a 55.0% likelihood against 45.0% for over 2.5 goals. Only one of Osasuna’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 2-1 vs Sevilla), with the other two finishing 0-1 and 1-1. Barcelona have seen two of their last three go under 2.5 (2-0 vs Getafe, 1-0 vs Celta) and just the 4-1 win over Espanyol going over, and despite both teams’ strong xG figures, their recent scorelines suggest a controlled, low-to-mid scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners in this match is 8.13, pointing to a relatively average corners prediction rather than a flood of set-piece situations. Osasuna’s last three games produced 8, 9 and 9 corners, while Barcelona’s yielded 9, 8 and 12, so both sides tend to hover around that 8–10 range. With Barca likely to have more of the ball and Osasuna looking to break and force wide situations, this predicted corners figure aligns with two teams who attack but are not relentlessly direct.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Barcelona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this clash is 21.82, reflecting a match where both teams will create but not necessarily in frenetic fashion. Osasuna have posted shot counts of 15, 8 and 12 for and kept opponents to 8, 7 and 8, while Barcelona have recorded 13, 10 and 20 attempts in their last three and limited rivals to 4, 6 and 10. That shots prediction fits neatly with Barca’s strong attacking xG (3.022) and Osasuna’s impressive xG for and against, suggesting a game with around 10–12 efforts per side.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Barcelona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Barcelona with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Barcelona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is an expected spread of -0.62, indicating Barcelona are favoured to win by roughly two-thirds of a goal. Osasuna’s recent goal differences (+1 vs Sevilla, -1 vs Athletic, 0 vs Betis) show a side usually in tight games, while Barca’s recent +2, +1 and +3 margins underline their capacity to edge or pull away from opponents. That aligns with the 53.0% away-win probability and the visitors’ superior attack and defence, even if the margin is expected to be narrow.

Final Prediction

Barcelona’s edge comes from their superior attacking volume, defensive solidity and the consistent gap in quality reflected in the league table and the -0.62 spread. Osasuna’s well-organised defence and strong underlying numbers at home mean this should not be straightforward, but Barca’s ability to turn xG dominance into results should tell. A key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna can convert their promising xG into early chances; if they don’t, Barcelona’s control usually grinds opponents down.

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