La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Betis Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Osasuna

Home Team
36%
VS

Betis

Away Team
38%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Osasuna D W L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)

Betis D L D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 2.37
xGA (avg) 1.11
Clean Sheets 1

Betis

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Real Betis are given the slightest edge here, with a 38.0% chance of an away win against Osasuna’s 36.0%, while the draw stands at 26.0%. The model points to Betis edging it in a tight contest, and leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% probability for over suggests a stronger tilt to the “under”) in what could be a controlled, cagey game. In the table, Betis are sitting in 5th place on 45 points, chasing the Champions League spots, while Osasuna are 9th with 38 points and still looking upwards rather than down.

Match Analysis

Osasuna’s recent form has been mixed but competitive: a 2-2 draw at Alavés, an impressive 1-0 home win over Girona, and a 1-3 defeat away to Sociedad. They’ve shown they can dominate at El Sadar – 19 shots to 5 and 6-2 on corners against Girona – but also that their back line can be exposed, as seen in San Sebastián. The broader trend is positive in attack: across their last five, Osasuna are averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 1.4 conceded, backed by a strong 2.366 expected goals per game. Betis arrive with three straight tight matches: 0-0 at home to Espanyol, a narrow 1-2 loss at Athletic Bilbao, and a 1-1 draw with Celta. They’ve controlled territory at home – 19 shots against both Espanyol and Celta – but turned that into just one goal, underlining a recent lack of cutting edge. Over the last five, Betis are averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with 1.304 xG for and 1.156 xG against, suggesting balance but little margin for error at either end. Those advanced numbers hint at a contest where Osasuna may create slightly more than their league position suggests, while Betis’ greater quality in key areas and top‑five standing could be decisive if they are more clinical than in recent outings.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Betis
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction sitting at just 45.0%, implying a greater probability of a low‑scoring affair. Two of Osasuna’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Alavés and 1-3 vs Sociedad), but their home win over Girona finished 1-0. Betis, by contrast, have been consistently tight: all three of their recent games – 0-0, 1-2, 1-1 – have stayed under 2.5. With Osasuna averaging 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded and Betis at 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, and both sides’ xG figures clustered around one to two goals per game, a narrow scoreline looks more likely than a shoot‑out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Betis
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 8.99, pointing towards a match with roughly 9 corners overall. Osasuna’s last three outings produced corner counts of 1-7, 6-2 and 5-3, showing they can either be pinned back or dominate wide areas depending on the game state. Betis have posted 4-3, 5-6 and 3-4 in corners, consistently around the three‑to‑five mark for and against. Both teams like to build up rather than constantly hit the byline, so the corners prediction of around nine fits a game of steady pressure rather than end‑to‑end wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Betis
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 23.98, essentially 24 efforts combined, which matches the recent trends of both sides. Osasuna have recorded 8, 19 and 13 shots in their last three, while allowing 18, 5 and 14 – games that often hover around the mid‑20s mark in total attempts. Betis have been similarly active, with 19, 11 and 19 shots of their own and conceding 8, 11 and 7. Given those numbers and the xG profiles of both teams, a shots prediction close to 24 makes sense: a game with chances, but not relentless bombardment.

Final Prediction

Betis are narrowly favoured because of their higher league position, more stable defensive metrics and ability to control shot counts, even if recent results haven’t fully reflected that. Osasuna’s strong xG and improved scoring form, especially at home, ensure this is far from straightforward, but Betis’ greater experience in tight matches could tip it their way. The key factor to watch will be whether Betis can finally turn their sustained shot volume into goals against an Osasuna side that tends to give you chances.

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