La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Espanol Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
58%
VS

Espanol

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.5
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Osasuna L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)

Espanol W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 0.92
Clean Sheets 0

Espanol

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 2.19
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are slight but clear favourites at El Sadar, with a 58.0% probability of taking all three points against an Espanol side given just a 21.0% chance of an away win (21.0% draw). The model leans towards an Osasuna victory and an over 2.5 prediction on goals (52.0% chance of at least three), in a clash between two mid-table neighbours: Osasuna 13th and Espanol 14th, both on 42 points.

Match Analysis

Form-wise, Osasuna come in on a three-game losing run, but the performances have been more competitive than the results suggest. They’ve pushed top sides hard: 1-2 defeats at home to both Ath Madrid and Barcelona, and a wild 2-3 loss away to Levante. The underlying numbers back up that this is not a team collapsing – in their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but with a strong 1.926 xG for and only 0.916 xG against, suggesting they’ve been creating enough and conceding fewer clear chances than the scorelines imply. Espanol, by contrast, have been more blunt in attack and looser at the back. Their last three show one impressive 2-0 home win over Ath Bilbao, sandwiched between a 1-2 loss at Sevilla and a 0-2 home defeat to Real Madrid. Over the last five, they are averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG figures of 0.942 for and 2.19 against. Two clean sheets in that spell hint they can organise themselves, but overall they’ve been second best in most games, and those advanced metrics explain why the home side carry the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction (52.0% probability) is supported by recent patterns. Two of Osasuna’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (2-3 vs Levante, plus two 1-2 defeats), while just one of Espanol’s last three crossed that line (1-2 at Sevilla). Osasuna’s mix of 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per match, backed by nearly 2.0 xG for, suggests a game with chances, while Espanol’s 1.8 goals conceded on average and high xG against points to a defence likely to give up enough opportunities for the total to push over.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.85, in line with what we’ve seen from both teams. Osasuna’s last three have produced 12, 16 and 10 corners respectively, driven partly by games where they’ve spent long spells defending and then countering. Espanol’s matches have seen 17, 10 and 11 corners, again hinting at contests with plenty of wide play and blocked efforts. Given both sides’ tendency to concede territory at times, the predicted corners figure just under double digits feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 25.51 expected shots in total, suggesting a fairly open encounter. Osasuna’s recent games have been shot-heavy: 23-5 vs Ath Madrid, 5-35 at Levante and 9-13 against Barcelona show they’re involved in matches where both boxes are busy. Espanol’s last three (12-11, 10-21, 17-15) underline a similar pattern. With Osasuna’s strong attacking xG and Espanol conceding over 2.0 xG on average, the expected shots tally matches the idea of frequent attempts from both sides.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Espanol wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Espanol with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Espanol
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Osasuna favoured by +0.72 goals, reflecting their status as home favourites. In their last three, Osasuna’s goal difference is -1 in each match but always by a single goal, while Espanol’s is more worrying: -2 vs Real Madrid, -1 vs Sevilla, +2 vs Ath Bilbao. The expected spread ties in with the 58.0% home win probability and the underlying metrics: Osasuna are creating better chances and conceding fewer quality looks than Espanol, which should tilt a tight match their way.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s edge comes from stronger underlying numbers and home advantage, even if their recent results don’t immediately show it. Espanol’s low scoring rate and high xG conceded make it hard to trust them on the road. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna can finally turn their superior chance creation into a decisive lead, or if Espanol’s occasional defensive solidity can drag this mid-table duel into a scrap.

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