La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Girona Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Osasuna

Home Team
47%
VS

Girona

Away Team
28%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 26.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Osasuna L D L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)

Girona W D L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 1

Girona

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are slight favourites at El Sadar, with a 47.0% probability of taking all three points against a Girona side given a 28.0% chance, while the draw sits at 25.0%. The model points to a home win and a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 48.0%. Both teams are side by side in mid‑table – Osasuna 11th and Girona 12th, each on 34 points after 28 games – adding extra weight to this head‑to‑head.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come into this one off a mixed run: a 1-3 defeat at Real Sociedad, a 2-2 home draw with Mallorca, and a narrow 0-1 loss at Valencia. The pattern is of a team that can create plenty at home – 22 shots and 8 corners against Mallorca – but hasn’t quite turned that into results, with just one point from the last three. Over the last five matches, though, they’re averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 1.6 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers: 2.088 expected goals (xG) for and 1.374 xG against per game, plus one clean sheet. That suggests performance levels are better than the recent scorelines. Girona arrive with a steadier recent record: a 3-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao, a 1-1 draw away to Levante, and a 1-2 home defeat to Celta. They’ve looked competitive in every outing, generating 22 shots at Levante and 15 against Celta, and their last five games show 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average. Importantly, their attacking xG (1.812 per match) is higher than their actual scoring rate, while they concede 1.292 xG per game, hinting they might be underperforming in both boxes. With both sides mid‑table but carrying solid underlying metrics, small details in both penalty areas could decide this.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome, with a 48.0% probability, despite both sides showing they can be involved in open games. Two of Osasuna’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs Sociedad and 2-2 vs Mallorca), while the 0-1 at Valencia came in under. For Girona, two of their last three have finished under 2.5 (1-1 at Levante, 1-2 vs Celta) and only the 3-0 win over Athletic cleared the line. Given Osasuna’s 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded per game and Girona’s 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, alongside relatively close xG figures on both sides, the over 2.5 prediction is less favoured than a tight, controlled contest staying under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.52, pointing towards a game in the 9–10 corner range. Osasuna’s last three show they can rack them up at home – 8-0 in corners against Mallorca – but more modest figures away (5-3 at Sociedad and 4-5 at Valencia). Girona’s recent corner counts have been varied: 2-9 against Athletic, 3-2 at Levante, and 10-6 versus Celta. Both teams’ willingness to attack from wide areas and shoot frequently suggests the corners prediction is for a steady, but not extreme, number of set-piece opportunities.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 26.37 expected shots in the match, this should be reasonably open without becoming a pure shoot‑out. Osasuna’s last three games saw them take 13, 22 and 8 shots, while facing 14, 8 and 14, underlining a side that can swing between dominance and caution. Girona, meanwhile, have produced 14, 22 and 15 shots and conceded 20, 14 and 7, matching their strong attacking xG of 1.812. Those figures support a shots prediction in line with the expected shots total, with both sides likely to test the goalkeepers regularly even if the scoreline remains tight.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s slight edge comes from home advantage at El Sadar and more robust recent xG numbers, suggesting their underlying level is that of a marginally stronger side. Girona’s ability to create chances but underperform their xG makes their finishing a key storyline. The battle between Osasuna’s home pressure and Girona’s counter-attacking threat should be the decisive factor to watch.

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