La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Mallorca Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Osasuna

Home Team
81%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
9%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Osasuna L W D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 2)

Mallorca L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.31
# Clean Sheets: 1

Mallorca

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.21
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are strong favourites here, with an 81.0% chance of taking all three points against a Mallorca side given just a 9.0% probability of victory and sitting deep in trouble. The model points to a home win and an “under 2.5” goals prediction, with only a 47.0% chance of the game going above that line and even a slight lean towards no both-teams-to-score. In the table, Osasuna are 10th on 33 points, relatively comfortable in mid‑table, while Mallorca are 18th on 24 points and currently in the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come in with mixed but encouraging recent form: a gritty 2-1 home win over Real Madrid sits between an away defeat at Valencia (0-1) and a goalless draw at Elche. Those three matches underline their resilience – just two goals conceded across the last two away trips – and their ability to raise their level at home. Even when under pressure (they were outshot at Valencia and Elche), they’ve shown they can stay compact and be clinical when chances arrive. The advanced numbers reinforce that trend. Over the last five games, Osasuna have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with an expected goals output of 1.948 for and 1.312 against. That points to a side creating consistently decent chances and limiting opponents to relatively modest opportunities – exactly the profile you’d expect from a solid mid-table team eyeing a late push towards the European places. Mallorca, by contrast, travel in dreadful form after three straight defeats: 0-1 at home to Sociedad, 0-2 away at Celta, and 1-2 at home to Betis. The scorelines tell the story of a team that stays in games but rarely takes control, and the 1-20 shot count at Celta is particularly alarming. Their last five matches bring just 0.4 goals scored per game and 2.2 conceded, backed up by an xG of only 0.532 for and a worrying 2.212 against – numbers that match their position in 18th and underline why they are in a relegation fight.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome, with a 47.0% probability of over 2.5 and therefore a slight preference for a low-scoring game. Osasuna’s last three matches have produced totals of 1, 3 and 0 goals – just one game over 2.5 – while Mallorca’s have finished with 1, 2 and 3 goals, also only one over the line. Given Osasuna’s solid defence (1.2 conceded per game, 1.312 xG against) and Mallorca’s blunt attack (0.4 goals, 0.532 xG for), an “under 2.5” and even cagey affair fits the over 2.5 prediction angle here.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.66 total, suggesting a game hovering around the 9–10 mark. Osasuna’s recent matches yielded corner totals of 9 (4-5 vs Valencia), 10 (3-7 vs Real Madrid) and 13 (3-10 vs Elche), showing they can be pushed deep and concede plenty when opponents dominate the ball. Mallorca’s last three have produced 10 (3-7 vs Sociedad), 9 (2-7 vs Celta) and 10 (7-3 vs Betis), again landing around that 9–10 range. With both teams generally on the back foot and often forced to defend crosses, the predicted corners total of just under double figures fits their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.48 anticipates a moderately busy contest in front of goal without turning into a siege. Osasuna’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 22, 28 and 23, consistently close to that band. Mallorca’s recent totals were 18, 21 and 31, with the Celta match (1-20) skewing things but underlining how often they allow opponents to fire away. That pattern, along with Osasuna’s healthy attacking xG (1.948), supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s: Osasuna should generate enough attempts to justify their favourite tag, while Mallorca’s limited attacking output keeps the overall volume in check.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s superior recent form, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Mallorca side leaking goals and chances. With the visitors struggling badly in attack, the likeliest script is a controlled home win in a game that doesn’t explode into a goal fest. The key factor to watch will be whether Mallorca can survive the expected Osasuna pressure without conceding early – if they crack, the gulf in confidence could quickly show on the scoreboard.

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