La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Real Madrid Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Osasuna

Home Team
6%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
86%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Osasuna D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 2)

Real Madrid W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.02
# Clean Sheets: 1

Real Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.96
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are clear favourites here, with an 86.0% probability of taking all three points away to 10th-placed Osasuna, who are big underdogs at just 6.0%. The model leans towards a tight, controlled game from the league leaders, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Madrid’s strong attack, and only a 48.0% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals. Madrid start from the top of La Liga on 60 points, while Osasuna sit mid-table on 30 points.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come into this clash quietly solid: unbeaten in their last three (one win, two draws) against Elche, Celta and Villarreal. They’ve shown they can mix it, drawing 2-2 at home to a strong Villarreal side and winning 2-1 away at Celta. Their recent advanced numbers back that up: 2.2 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded on average across the last five, with xG for at 1.836 and xG against at 1.016 – suggesting they are consistently creating and limiting chances at a respectable level. Real Madrid, however, are operating on another level. Three straight wins – 4-1 vs Sociedad, 2-0 at Valencia, 2-1 vs Vallecano – underline why they are top of the table. Defensively they’ve been exceptional: only 0.4 goals conceded per game in their last five and three clean sheets in that spell, backed by a low 0.96 expected goals against. Offensively, they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.832 xG per match lately, showing a side that reliably manufactures good chances rather than relying on one-off moments.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied edge (given only a 48.0% chance of over), even though both sides have had some lively scorelines. Two of Osasuna’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Celta, 2-2 vs Villarreal), while one stayed under (0-0 vs Elche). For Madrid, two of the last three also finished under 2.5 (2-0, 2-1) and one over (4-1). Given Osasuna’s 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, and Madrid’s 2.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus both teams’ xG numbers hovering around 1.8 for and about 1.0 against, the under 2.5 prediction reflects an expectation of Madrid controlling the game and limiting Osasuna’s clear chances.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.2, pointing to a moderately active game in wide areas. Osasuna’s last three have produced 9, 10 and 8 total corners (3-10, 3-7, 6-2), while Madrid’s have seen 10, 13 and 13 (4-6, 8-5, 9-4), showing a consistent pattern of both winning and conceding corners. This corners prediction fits the picture of Madrid as an assertive, attacking side that forces blocks and saves, while Osasuna’s willingness to counter and cross at home should also contribute to the predicted corners total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stand at 24.5 in total, suggesting a game with regular, but not constant, goalmouth action. Osasuna’s recent matches brought 21, 26 and 20 total shots respectively, while Madrid’s delivered 24, 18 and 27, so the shots prediction of around 25 efforts fits well with both teams’ profiles. With Madrid’s xG at 1.832 and Osasuna’s at 1.836 over their last five, we can expect a decent number of attempts, but Madrid’s superior shot quality and defensive control should cap Osasuna’s volume.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s edge comes from their balance: they combine a steady 2.0 goals per game with a defence conceding just 0.4, making them heavy favourites against a mid-table Osasuna. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna can turn their recent strong xG numbers into enough clear chances against La Liga’s tightest back line, or whether Madrid’s control suffocates the game into the low-scoring away win the numbers predict.

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