La Liga 2025-2026: Osasuna vs Sevilla Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
69%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
15%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.5
Expected Shots: 22.3
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Osasuna L D D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)

Sevilla L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 2.26
xGA (avg) 0.92
Clean Sheets 1

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.65
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are clear favourites at El Sadar, with a 69.0% probability of taking all three points against a Sevilla side given just a 15.0% chance of victory and a 16.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an expected goal spread in Osasuna’s favour, despite them sitting 10th on 39 points, only five clear of 17th-placed Sevilla on 34. Goals are not expected to flow, with an under 2.5 goals prediction backed by a 43.0% chance of the game going over that line.

Match Analysis

Osasuna come into this with a run of three games without a win, but their performances have not been as poor as the results suggest. They drew 1-1 at home to Betis and 2-2 away at Alaves, either side of a narrow 1-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao. Across their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, while generating an impressive 2.264 expected goals per game and allowing just 0.92. That points to a side creating plenty and generally controlling games, even if the points column hasn’t fully reflected it. Sevilla, by contrast, remain stuck near the relegation battle and their recent form underlines why. They’ve lost two of their last three – 2-0 away to Levante and 1-0 away to bottom club Oviedo – with a solitary bright spot being a 2-1 home win over Atletico Madrid. Over their last five, they are averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, with a very low 0.652 xG in attack and 1.518 xG against. The balance of play in those numbers heavily favours Osasuna, and helps explain why the home side are strongly fancied.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5, with only a 43.0% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals. Osasuna’s last three outings have produced totals of 1, 2 and 4 goals, so two of those three finished under 2.5, while Sevilla’s games ended with 2, 3 and 1 goals – again, two under 2.5. With Osasuna averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Sevilla at 1.0 for and 2.0 against, but both sides’ xG profiles indicating tighter contests (especially Osasuna’s strong defence and Sevilla’s weak attack), the under 2.5 prediction feels well supported.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest game, with expected total corners set at 8.46. Osasuna’s last three matches saw corner counts of 4, 6 and 1 in their favour, while Sevilla’s produced 6, 6 and 9. Both teams can rack up corners when chasing a game, but neither are relentless high-press outfits, so the predicted corners total fits a contest where Osasuna control territory without turning it into a flurry of set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.34, which matches what we’ve seen recently from both sides. Osasuna’s last three saw combined shot counts of 15, 20 and 26, while Sevilla’s produced 15, 24 and 16 total attempts. Given Osasuna’s high attacking xG (2.264) and Sevilla’s struggles to create (0.652 xG on average), the shots prediction suggests the hosts will generate the more dangerous opportunities even if the overall shot volume sits around that expected shots figure.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Sevilla wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Sevilla with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Sevilla
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Osasuna favoured by 0.82 goals, effectively expecting a narrow but clear home win. Across their last three, Osasuna’s goal differences have been -1, 0 and 0, while Sevilla’s read -2, +1 and -1 – a pattern of tighter games for Osasuna and more swings for Sevilla. With Osasuna stronger in both scoring chance creation and defensive xG allowed, that expected spread aligns neatly with the 69.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

Osasuna’s edge lies in the underlying performance: they are creating far better chances and conceding far fewer than Sevilla, and their home advantage at El Sadar reinforces the forecast. Sevilla’s lack of cutting edge in attack, highlighted by their low xG and recent blanks on the road, is the major concern for the visitors. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna can convert their expected dominance into early goals, or if Sevilla can somehow drag the game into the kind of scrappy, low-scoring battle that might give them a lifeline.

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