La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Oviedo

Home Team
2%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
96%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Oviedo D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 3)

Ath Madrid W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.44
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are overwhelming favourites here, with a 96.0% probability of taking all three points away at relegation-threatened Oviedo, who have just a 2.0% chance of an upset. The model leans towards a tight game in terms of scoring, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a near coin-flip 49.0% probability for over 2.5. Atlético arrive in Asturias sitting 4th on 48 points and chasing the Champions League spots, while bottom‑placed Oviedo are 20th on 17 points and fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Oviedo’s recent form underlines exactly why they are rooted to the foot of La Liga. They’ve taken four points from their last three matches – an encouraging 3-3 draw away to Sociedad, a 1-2 home loss to Athletic Bilbao, and a narrow 1-0 win over Girona. Those results show a side capable of organisation and the odd punch on the counter, but their season-long story is bleak: only 16 goals scored and 39 conceded, with a goal difference of -23. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, backed by 1.052 expected goals for and 1.16 against, suggesting a team that tends to be involved in low-margin games. Atlético Madrid’s last three outings have been a mixed bag. A statement 4-2 home win over Espanyol reminded everyone of their attacking ceiling, but it was preceded by a 0-3 defeat away at Vallecano and a 0-1 home loss to Betis. Even so, their league position – 4th with 42 goals scored and only 23 conceded – reflects a side that is usually defensively reliable and clinical enough in key moments. Recent advanced metrics show Atlético averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across the last five, with 0.954 xG for and 1.436 xG against, hinting that they’ve allowed more chances than usual but still operate in relatively tight, controlled contests.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is favoured here, supported by the model despite a 49.0% probability for over 2.5 goals that sits near even. Oviedo’s last three league games have produced one clear under (1-0 v Girona) and two overs (3-3 v Sociedad, 1-2 v Athletic), but their five-game averages of 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded fit a low-scoring profile. Atlético have had one high-scoring match recently (4-2 v Espanyol) and two unders (0-3 and 0-1), while their xG figures – under 1.0 in attack and only 1.436 conceded – also point to a match where one or two key moments decide it rather than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.67 total corners, which fits the recent numbers for both sides. Oviedo’s last three matches have seen corner totals of 13 (6-7 v Sociedad), 5 (2-3 v Athletic) and 8 (4-4 v Girona), suggesting they can be drawn into higher counts when forced back. Atlético’s last three produced 8 (5-3 v Espanyol), 12 (8-4 v Vallecano) and 10 (7-3 v Betis), underlining their tendency to dominate territory and rack up set-piece situations. That blend of a deep, struggling home side and a front-foot away team makes the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark look well balanced.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected total of 23.54, the shots prediction sees this as a game with a steady but not frenzied level of attacking. Oviedo’s recent matches yielded combined shot counts of 29 (14-15 v Sociedad), 20 (7-13 v Athletic) and 17 (8-9 v Girona), typically sitting around that 20-plus mark. Atlético’s last three produced 26 (18-8 v Espanyol), 22 (9-13 v Vallecano) and 18 (10-8 v Betis), which aligns closely with the expected shots figure and their xG profile of creating close to one clear goal’s worth of chances per match.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s edge comes from their superior quality at both ends of the pitch, their 4th‑place standing, and Oviedo’s chronic scoring issues and fragile defensive record over the season. In what is likely to be a controlled, relatively low-scoring encounter, the key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo can survive Atlético’s territorial pressure long enough to keep it tight, or whether an early away goal turns this into a one-sided affair.

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