La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Elche Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oviedo

Home Team
48%
VS

Elche

Away Team
27%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Oviedo D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)

Elche W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 3

Elche

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 2.14
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Oviedo are marginal favourites at home, with a 48.0% chance of taking all three points against Elche’s 27.0% win probability and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model points towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, in what looks like a tight, survival‑shaped contest. In the table, Elche sit 16th on 35 points while bottom‑placed Oviedo are 20th with 28 points, desperate to claw back ground in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this with real momentum: unbeaten in three and with back‑to‑back wins. They’ve drawn 1-1 at home to high‑flying Villarreal, then beaten Celta 3-0 away and Sevilla 1-0 at home, taking seven points from nine and conceding just one goal in that run. Over the last five games they average only 0.8 goals scored but also 0.8 conceded, backed by solid underlying numbers – 1.508 xG created and 1.328 xG allowed per game – and three clean sheets, suggesting a side that has tightened up and is finally getting closer to its xG in both boxes. Elche’s recent form is more mixed. They’ve claimed eye‑catching home wins over Valencia (1-0) and Atlético Madrid (3-2), but sandwiched between those came a 1-0 defeat at Vallecano. Their defence remains a concern: in the last five matches they’ve conceded 2.4 goals per game on average, with 2.14 xG against, and only one clean sheet. They can hurt teams going forward (0.8 goals, 1.092 xG per game), yet they allow a high volume of chances, which could tilt this towards an Oviedo side that’s becoming more efficient.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to an under 2.5 outcome, with under preferred despite a near‑even 48.0% probability on over 2.5. Two of Oviedo’s last three games have stayed under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs Villarreal, 1-0 vs Sevilla), with only the 3-0 win at Celta going over. Elche, by contrast, have had two under 2.5 results (1-0 vs Valencia, 0-1 at Vallecano) and one over (3-2 vs Atlético), but their high goals conceded and 2.14 xG against are the main threat to the under 2.5 call. Still, both teams’ five‑game averages of 0.8 goals scored each support a cautious over 2.5 prediction stance.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Elche
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.3 total corners, suggesting a moderate, not frantic, game in wide areas. Oviedo’s last three have produced 7, 5 and 6 corners for them respectively (with their opponents often dominating the count), while Elche’s matches have seen large totals driven by high‑tempo spells: 16 corners vs Atlético, 14 vs Valencia and 13 at Vallecano. Elche’s tendency to press and concede territory, combined with Oviedo’s improving attacking play, backs the predicted corners figure in the high single digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Elche
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.31, indicating a match with a reasonable level of goalmouth action but not an all‑out shoot‑out. Oviedo have taken 16, 8 and 7 shots in their last three games, while allowing 7, 9 and 9 – generally keeping things controlled. Elche’s fixtures have been more open: they fired 14 and 8 shots in their two home wins but faced 6, 22 and 21, underlining why the shots prediction anticipates a healthy but not extreme volume aligned with their 1.092 xG for and 2.14 xG against.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oviedo wins by X goals. Negative = Elche wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oviedo vs Elche with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oviedo vs Elche
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.24 in favour of Oviedo, reflecting their slight edge at home. Over the last three games, Oviedo’s goal difference is +4 (5 scored, 1 conceded), while Elche sit at +1 (4 scored, 3 conceded), but with far more defensive volatility. That recent defensive solidity, plus their three clean sheets in five, justifies Oviedo’s higher win probability and the narrow positive expected spread.

Final Prediction

Oviedo’s resurgence, built on defensive organisation and better finishing relative to their xG, gives them the edge over an Elche side that still leaks chances. If they can keep Elche’s attack quiet, their home crowd and recent form should tilt a tight contest their way. The key factor to watch will be how often Elche can break through Oviedo’s compact shape and turn their higher‑risk style into clear chances.

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