La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Getafe Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oviedo

Home Team
45%
VS

Getafe

Away Team
30%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 22.4
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Oviedo L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)

Getafe L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.21
Clean Sheets 2

Getafe

xG (avg) 0.93
xGA (avg) 2.18
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Oviedo are narrowly favoured at home, with a 45.0% chance of victory compared to Getafe’s 30.0%, and a 26.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win in a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 57.0% implied probability. In the table, Getafe sit 7th on 44 points, while Oviedo are bottom in 20th with 28 points and fighting for survival.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this still stuck in a rut of results but not performances. They’ve lost back‑to‑back games against Betis (0-3 away) and Elche (1-2 at home) before drawing 1-1 with Villarreal. Interestingly, they edged the shot count in all three – 17-10 at Betis, 12-4 versus Elche and 16-7 against Villarreal – and dominated corners in the last two home matches. Their recent averages back up that improvement: 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across the last five, but with 1.49 expected goals created and only 1.21 xG conceded, plus two clean sheets in that stretch. Getafe arrive in Asturias on the back of two straight home defeats – 0-2 to Vallecano and 0-2 to Barcelona – followed by a gritty 1-0 away win at Sociedad. They’ve scored just twice and conceded four in those three, with shot counts often going against them (outshot 4-13 by Barça and 5-13 at Sociedad). Over the last five, they also average 0.8 goals scored, but concede only 0.6, despite allowing a hefty 2.18 expected goals per game. That suggests a side riding its luck defensively, kept afloat by structure and defensive commitment, but giving up more chances than the scoreboard shows.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 as the likeliest outcome, with just a 43.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. Two of Oviedo’s last three have gone over 2.5 (0-3 vs Betis, 1-2 vs Elche) with the Villarreal draw staying under, while all three of Getafe’s recent fixtures were under 2.5 (0-2, 0-2, 1-0). With both teams averaging only 0.8 goals scored and Oviedo’s xG (1.49 for, 1.21 against) and Getafe’s xG (0.93 for, 2.18 against) suggesting tight margins rather than shootouts, the under 2.5 prediction looks well backed.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.9, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from the flags. Oviedo’s last three have produced 4-5, 6-1 and 7-0 on corners, showing that at home they push opponents back and rack up set‑pieces. Getafe, by contrast, have seen 4-1, 6-3 and 3-6, often conceding more corners as they defend deep. The predicted corners number fits a game where Oviedo’s territorial play and Getafe’s compact style generate chances but not relentless end‑to‑end pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 22.43, a balanced shots prediction for a match likely decided by fine details. Oviedo’s recent shot counts – 17, 12 and 16 – show a home side willing to pull the trigger, while Getafe’s 13, 4 and 5 underline a more cautious approach and time spent without the ball. Those expected shots line up with the xG data: Oviedo creating more but finishing poorly, Getafe creating little yet staying in games, suggesting a contest of volume versus efficiency.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oviedo wins by X goals. Negative = Getafe wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oviedo vs Getafe with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oviedo vs Getafe
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal spread prediction is Oviedo -0.16, a slight edge to the home side rather than a clear gap. Over the last three, Oviedo’s goal difference is -3 (0-3, 1-2, 1-1), while Getafe’s is -2 (0-2, 0-2, 1-0), underlining how little separates them in recent form. With Oviedo pushing harder going forward and Getafe’s defence overperforming its underlying numbers, the expected spread and the 45.0% home‑win probability both hint at a narrow Oviedo success or a draw.

Final Prediction

Oviedo’s edge comes from volume: more shots, stronger recent xG and a desperate need for points at the foot of the table. Getafe’s organisation and knack for low‑scoring games keep them dangerous, but the numbers suggest they’re living on the brink defensively. The key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo can finally turn their chance creation into goals against a Getafe side that has been bending without quite breaking.

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