La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Sevilla Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Oviedo

Home Team
40%
VS

Sevilla

Away Team
36%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 23.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Oviedo L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)

Sevilla L L D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.18
Clean Sheets 1

Sevilla

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 2.02
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Oviedo are marginally favoured to take all three points, with a 40.0% probability of a home win against Sevilla’s 36.0%, despite sitting bottom of La Liga in 20th place on 21 points, while Sevilla are 15th with 31 points. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 57.0% implied probability, suggesting a cagey, low‑scoring encounter at the wrong end of the table.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this with fragile but improving signs. Their last three matches show a mixed bag: a heavy 4-2 defeat away at Levante, a crucial 1-0 home win over Valencia, and a battling 1-1 draw at Espanyol. The underlying numbers suggest they are more solid than their league position implies: 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average across their last five, with expected goals at 1.3 for and 1.184 against. They are creating enough to score more than they have, and one clean sheet in that spell hints at a team learning to manage games better. Sevilla, by contrast, are in the middle of an alarming defensive slump. They have taken just one point from their last three (1-1 v Vallecano, 2-5 loss at Barcelona, 0-2 loss at home to Valencia) and have shipped eight goals in that run. Over the last five matches, they average 1.6 goals scored but a worrying 2.6 conceded, with xG against at 2.022. That combination – conceding a lot of chances and goals – explains why a side with European ambitions at the start of the season now find themselves only four points above the relegation zone in 15th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
The match leans towards an under 2.5 outcome, backed by a 43.0% probability for over and therefore a stronger case for under 2.5. Oviedo’s recent games show two of their last three finishing under (1-0 v Valencia, 1-1 at Espanyol) and only the chaotic 4-2 at Levante going over 2.5. Sevilla have also seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-1 v Vallecano, 0-2 v Valencia), with only the 5-2 defeat at Barcelona going over. With Oviedo averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Sevilla’s xG for at 1.144 despite their higher actual goals, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than a tight, nervy scoreline.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively modest total, with 8.98 expected corners overall. Oviedo’s last three have been low on their side: 1-3 at Levante, 4-7 against Valencia, and 0-8 at Espanyol, indicating a team that struggles to sustain pressure in advanced areas. Sevilla, meanwhile, have had 6-2 v Vallecano, 4-3 at Barcelona and 1-3 v Valencia, a bit more balanced but still not explosive. Given neither side is consistently camped in the opposition third, the predicted corners tally just under nine fits a game where attacks are more sporadic than relentless.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 23.03, suggesting a contest with chances but not a constant shoot‑out. Oviedo’s recent shot counts – 10, 11, and just 6 attempts in their last three – show a side that often soaks up pressure rather than bombarding opponents, conceding 20, 13 and 28 shots in those games. Sevilla’s profile is similar but slightly more proactive, with 11, 8 and 13 shots taken and 9, 13 and 9 faced. That balance supports a shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s, in line with the xG figures that point to a handful of decent openings rather than an end‑to‑end classic.

Final Prediction

Oviedo’s edge comes from their improved defensive numbers and home win over Valencia, set against a Sevilla side leaking chances and goals with worrying regularity. If the hosts can translate their higher xG into actual goals, they are well placed to exploit Sevilla’s fragile back line. The key factor to watch will be how Sevilla’s defence copes with pressure in key moments – a single mistake at either end could decide a tight, low‑scoring relegation scrap.

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