La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Valencia Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Oviedo

Home Team
16%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
68%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Oviedo D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)

Valencia W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 0

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are clear favourites here, with a 68.0% chance of taking all three points away at bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just a 16.0% probability of a home win and the same chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Valencia sitting 12th on 32 points and Oviedo rooted to 20th with 18 points in a desperate relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this with just three wins all season and the worst attack in the league (17 scored, 44 conceded). Their recent run underlines the problem: a 1-1 draw at Espanyol was earned while being outshot 6-28 and losing the corner count 0-8, followed by a 0-3 defeat at Vallecano and a narrow 0-1 home loss to Atlético Madrid despite creating 16 shots and winning 8-3 on corners. Over the last five matches they average only 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 1.032 expected goals for and 1.206 against per game – competitive in xG terms, but with no clean sheets to show for it. Valencia arrive in much better shape, having beaten Alavés 3-2 and Osasuna 1-0 before a respectable 1-2 loss at high-flying Villarreal. They’ve taken six points from the last nine available, scoring five and conceding four in that stretch, and their last two home wins featured clear shot dominance (19-10 vs Alavés, 14-8 vs Osasuna). Across the last five outings, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.416 xG for and 1.836 xG against, plus two clean sheets – not watertight, but more resilient than Oviedo and with greater attacking punch.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5, with a 55.0% implied probability against 45.0% for over 2.5 goals. Oviedo’s last three games have produced totals of 2, 3 and 1 goals – so one over and two under 2.5 – and their meagre average of 0.6 goals scored per game, backed by modest 1.032 xG, suggests a side that struggles to turn chances into goals. Valencia’s last three matches have ended with 5, 1 and 3 goals, giving them two over and one under 2.5, but their own averages (1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded; 1.416 xG for, 1.836 xG against) point more to controlled, medium-scoring contests rather than a goal glut, supporting the under 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably busy afternoon from the flag, with expected total corners set at 9.68. Oviedo’s last three matches have been extreme in different ways: they were hammered 0-8 on corners at Espanyol, lost 2-12 at Vallecano, but then produced an 8-3 win on corners at home to Atlético, showing that when they attack, they can rack up deliveries into the box. Valencia, meanwhile, recorded 10-2, 5-4 and 4-5 corner counts in their last three, reflecting a side that usually plays on the front foot; that attacking style adds weight to the predicted corners band just under double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 23.85 points towards an open game without being a total shoot‑out. Oviedo’s recent numbers are intriguing: they managed only 6 shots at Espanyol and 8 at Vallecano, but fired 16 efforts against Atlético, while consistently facing high shot volumes (28, 19 and 12 against). Valencia’s last three read 19, 14 and 8 shots taken, with 10, 8 and 12 faced, in line with their stronger xG profile of 1.416 per match. That blend of a fragile bottom side and a more assertive mid‑table team fits the shots prediction of around mid‑20s, as Valencia should generate the clearer openings.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s superior league position, more reliable attack and recent upturn in results give them a clear edge over an Oviedo side that toils badly in front of goal and sits bottom with only three wins. If Valencia impose their usual volume of shots and corners, their quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Oviedo can reproduce the aggressive, 16-shot performance they produced against Atlético Madrid – without that level of intent, the visitors are strong favourites to leave with the points.

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