La Liga 2025-2026: Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction - 23 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Oviedo

Home Team
33%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
41%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 38%
Under 2.5: 62%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Oviedo W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)

Villarreal W L W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oviedo

xG (avg) 1.26
xGA (avg) 0.81
Clean Sheets 3

Villarreal

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are slight favourites to take all three points, with a 41.0% chance of an away win compared to Oviedo’s 33.0% at the bottom of La Liga in 20th place. Third‑placed Villarreal are chasing the Champions League spots, and the model leans towards a tight away victory in a low‑scoring game. The under 2.5 goals prediction is strongest at 62.0% implied probability, pointing to a controlled, cagey contest rather than a shootout.

Match Analysis

Oviedo come into this with renewed belief after two impressive wins in three: a 3-0 demolition of Celta away and a gritty 1-0 home success over Sevilla, either side of a wild 4-2 defeat at Levante. That run has at least given life to their relegation fight, and the most striking feature is defensive resilience: three clean sheets in their last five and an average of just 0.6 goals conceded per game recently. Their attacking numbers are modest – 0.8 goals scored on average – but their xG of 1.256 suggests they are creating slightly more than they are finishing. Villarreal’s last three matches underline why they sit 3rd: a 3-1 home win over Sociedad and a 2-1 victory at Athletic Bilbao balanced against a narrow 1-0 defeat at Girona. They’re averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, with xG for (1.324) and against (1.316) almost identical, which hints at open, evenly contested games rather than dominance. Significantly, Villarreal have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, so even struggling Oviedo should feel there will be moments to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 outcome, with only a 38.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, making under 2.5 the preferred call. Two of Oviedo’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (the 3-0 at Celta and 4-2 at Levante), but their broader form – 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded per game, with xG for (1.256) and against (0.81) – points to tighter contests. Villarreal have seen two of their last three also go over 2.5, yet their recent averages and near‑balanced xG suggest this over 2.5 prediction is less likely here against a deep, survival‑minded Oviedo.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.33 total corners, roughly in line with what both sides have produced recently. Oviedo’s last three matches featured low corner counts for them – 1, 5 and 1 won – while opponents racked up 4, 9 and 3, suggesting they tend to absorb pressure rather than pile on attacks from wide areas. Villarreal’s recent figures (3, 4 and 4 corners won, while conceding 15, 7 and 5) show they do build sustained pressure, so the predicted corners tally fits a game where the visitors have more of the ball but don’t turn it into a barrage of set‑pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.76, which matches the pattern of both sides’ recent games. Oviedo have recorded 8, 7 and 10 shots in their last three, conceding 9, 9 and a hefty 20, showing a team that spends long spells without the ball. Villarreal fired 12, 9 and 21 shots, while facing 18, 10 and 11, illustrating a more proactive, front‑foot approach consistent with their xG of 1.324 per game. That blend supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with Villarreal likely to account for the greater share of the expected shots.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, more consistent attacking output and greater overall quality give them a narrow edge despite Oviedo’s recent revival. Oviedo’s defensive numbers mean this is unlikely to be a rout, but sustaining that level against a top‑three side is a different test. The key factor to watch will be whether Villarreal can turn territorial dominance into clear chances against a compact Oviedo back line fighting desperately against relegation.

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